School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Int J Public Health. 2012 Apr;57(2):289-96. doi: 10.1007/s00038-011-0236-x. Epub 2011 Feb 10.
To examine the relationship between meteorological factors and epidemiological pattern of Japanese encephalitis in Linyi City during 1956-2004.
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between monthly JE incidence and weather factors. Logarithmic transformation was applied to the JE incidence series to assure the normality and homogeneity of variance of the residuals. The effect of mass vaccination on JE incidence was also evaluated using a transfer function in the time series analysis.
The analysis suggested that monthly average temperature [β = 0.0574, 95% confidence interval (CI) = (0.0172, 0.0976)] and relative humidity [β = 0.0082, 95% CI = (0.0004, 0.0158)] were positively associated with the logarithmic incidence of Japanese encephalitis after adjusting for mass vaccination in this area.
Weather variables might be treated as possible predictors of Japanese encephalitis incidence for regions with similar geographic, weather, and socio-economic conditions to Linyi, China.
分析 1956-2004 年临沂市气象因素与乙型脑炎流行特征的关系。
采用自回归求和移动平均（ARIMA）模型分析气象因素与乙型脑炎月发病率的关系，对乙型脑炎发病率进行自然对数转换以保证残差的正态性和同方差性。采用传递函数法分析大规模疫苗接种对乙型脑炎发病率的影响。
调整大规模疫苗接种因素后，分析表明，月平均气温（β=0.0574，95%置信区间（CI）：（0.0172，0.0976））和相对湿度（β=0.0082，95%CI：（0.0004，0.0158））与乙型脑炎发病率的自然对数值呈正相关。
对于具有相似地理、气象和社会经济条件的地区，气象因素可能被视为乙型脑炎发病率的一个潜在预测因素。
