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本文引用的文献

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Strategies to help patients understand risks.帮助患者理解风险的策略。
BMJ. 2003 Sep 27;327(7417):745-8. doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7417.745.
2
Explaining risks: turning numerical data into meaningful pictures.解释风险：将数值数据转化为有意义的图表。
BMJ. 2002 Apr 6;324(7341):827-30. doi: 10.1136/bmj.324.7341.827.
3
Frequency or probability? A qualitative study of risk communication formats used in health care.频率还是概率？对医疗保健中使用的风险沟通形式的定性研究。
Med Decis Making. 2001 Nov-Dec;21(6):459-67. doi: 10.1177/0272989X0102100604.
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Presenting risk information--a review of the effects of "framing" and other manipulations on patient outcomes.呈现风险信息——“框架”及其他操控手段对患者结果影响的综述
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Medicine. Communicating statistical information.医学。统计信息交流。
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6
Disease impact number and population impact number: population perspectives to measures of risk and benefit.疾病影响数和人群影响数：从人群角度看风险与获益的衡量指标
BMJ. 2000 Oct 14;321(7266):950-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.321.7266.950.
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The visual communication of risk.风险的视觉传达。
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How can we help people make sense of medical data?我们如何帮助人们理解医学数据？
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Efficacy of bilateral prophylactic mastectomy in women with a family history of breast cancer.双侧预防性乳房切除术对有乳腺癌家族史女性的疗效。
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理解风险的简单工具：从不懂数字到具备洞察力。

Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight.

作者信息

Gigerenzer Gerd, Edwards Adrian

机构信息

Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.

出版信息

BMJ. 2003 Sep 27;327(7417):741-4. doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7417.741.

DOI:10.1136/bmj.327.7417.741
PMID:14512488
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC200816/
Abstract

Bad presentation of medical statistics such as the risks associated with a particular intervention can lead to patients making poor decisions on treatment. Particularly confusing are single event probabilities, conditional probabilities (such as sensitivity and specificity), and relative risks. How can doctors improve the presentation of statistical information so that patients can make well informed decisions?

摘要

医学统计数据展示不当，比如与特定干预措施相关的风险，可能会导致患者在治疗决策上失误。特别容易混淆的是单一事件概率、条件概率（如敏感度和特异度）以及相对风险。医生如何才能改进统计信息的展示方式，以便患者能够做出明智的决策呢？