理解风险的简单工具：从不懂数字到具备洞察力。
Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight.
作者信息
Gigerenzer Gerd, Edwards Adrian
机构信息
Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
出版信息
BMJ. 2003 Sep 27;327(7417):741-4. doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7417.741.
Abstract
Bad presentation of medical statistics such as the risks associated with a particular intervention can lead to patients making poor decisions on treatment. Particularly confusing are single event probabilities, conditional probabilities (such as sensitivity and specificity), and relative risks. How can doctors improve the presentation of statistical information so that patients can make well informed decisions?
摘要
医学统计数据展示不当，比如与特定干预措施相关的风险，可能会导致患者在治疗决策上失误。特别容易混淆的是单一事件概率、条件概率（如敏感度和特异度）以及相对风险。医生如何才能改进统计信息的展示方式，以便患者能够做出明智的决策呢？
相似文献
1
Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight.理解风险的简单工具：从不懂数字到具备洞察力。
BMJ. 2003 Sep 27;327(7417):741-4. doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7417.741.
2
Strategies to help patients understand risks.帮助患者理解风险的策略。
BMJ. 2003 Sep 27;327(7417):745-8. doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7417.745.
3
Multimedia patient education: patients taking ownership of their needs.
Dent Today. 2001 Jul;20(7):112-9.
4
The Hygienist's Role In Comprehensive Case Presentation & Patient Education.
J Okla Dent Assoc. 2016 Jan-Feb;107(1):32-3.
5
The incommensurability of research risks and benefits: practical help for research ethics committees.
IRB. 1995 Mar-Apr;17(2):8-10.
6
Four models of the physician-patient relationship.医患关系的四种模式。
JAMA. 1992;267(16):2221-6.
7
Risk assessment models to estimate cancer risk.
Eur J Oncol Nurs. 2008 Apr;12(2):85. doi: 10.1016/j.ejon.2008.04.001.
8
Patient decision aids: tools for patients and professionals.患者决策辅助工具：面向患者和专业人员的工具
Am J Nurs. 2009 Dec;109(12):60-3. doi: 10.1097/01.NAJ.0000365189.54747.ff.
9
Motivational interviewing concepts and the relationship to risk management and patient counseling.动机性访谈概念及其与风险管理和患者咨询的关系。
J Calif Dent Assoc. 2011 Oct;39(10):742-5.
10
Informed choice and decision-making in family planning counseling in Kenya.肯尼亚计划生育咨询中的知情选择与决策
Int Fam Plann Persp. 1998 Mar;24(1):4-11, 42.
引用本文的文献
1
Exploring the MAPPING application to facilitate risk communication and shared decision-making between physicians and patients with gynaecological cancer.探索 MAPPING 应用程序，以促进妇科癌症患者与医生之间的风险沟通和共同决策。
BMJ Open Qual. 2024 Aug 19;13(3):e002776. doi: 10.1136/bmjoq-2024-002776.
2
Patients' and Clinicians' Perceptions of the Clinical Utility of Predictive Risk Models for Chemotherapy-Related Symptom Management: Qualitative Exploration Using Focus Groups and Interviews.患者和临床医生对化疗相关症状管理预测风险模型的临床实用性的看法：使用焦点小组和访谈进行定性探索。
J Med Internet Res. 2024 Jun 20;26:e49309. doi: 10.2196/49309.
3
How do young women approaching screening age interpret the NHS cervical screening leaflet? A mixed methods study of identifying interpretation difficulties, barriers, facilitators, and leaflet interpretation, engagement and future screening behaviour.接近筛查年龄的年轻女性如何解读英国国家医疗服务体系（NHS）的子宫颈癌筛查宣传册？一项关于识别解读困难、障碍、促进因素以及宣传册解读、参与度和未来筛查行为的混合方法研究。
Health Psychol Behav Med. 2024 May 30;12(1):2361005. doi: 10.1080/21642850.2024.2361005. eCollection 2024.
4
"They are saying it's high, but I think it's quite low": exploring cardiovascular disease risk communication in NHS health checks through video-stimulated recall interviews with patients - a qualitative study.“他们说这个数值很高，但我觉得挺低的”：通过对患者进行视频刺激回忆访谈探索英国国家医疗服务体系健康检查中的心血管疾病风险沟通——一项定性研究
BMC Prim Care. 2024 Apr 23;25(1):126. doi: 10.1186/s12875-024-02357-w.
5
Assessing the effectiveness of HIV/STI risk communication displays among Melbourne Sexual Health Centre attendees: a cross-sectional, observational and vignette-based study.评估墨尔本性健康中心就诊者中 HIV/性传播感染风险沟通展示的效果：一项基于横断面观察和情景模拟的研究。
Sex Transm Infect. 2024 Apr 18;100(3):158-165. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2023-055978.
6
Words and numbers: a comparative study of medical and journalism students' descriptors of risk, numeracy and preferences for health risk communication.文字与数字：对医学生和新闻专业学生描述风险、计算能力以及对健康风险沟通偏好的对比研究。
BMC Med Educ. 2024 Jan 23;24(1):84. doi: 10.1186/s12909-024-05048-3.
7
Improving patient understanding of prenatal screening tests: Using naturally sampled frequencies, pictures, and accounting for individual differences.提高患者对产前筛查测试的理解：使用自然抽样频率、图片并考虑个体差异。
PEC Innov. 2023 Aug 8;3:100197. doi: 10.1016/j.pecinn.2023.100197. eCollection 2023 Dec 15.
8
Jumping the Queue:Willingness to Pay for Faster Access to COVID-19 Vaccines in Seven European Countries.插队：七个欧洲国家对更快获得 COVID-19 疫苗的支付意愿。
Pharmacoeconomics. 2023 Oct;41(10):1389-1402. doi: 10.1007/s40273-023-01284-5. Epub 2023 Jun 21.
9
Illusion of knowledge in statistics among clinicians: evaluating the alignment between objective accuracy and subjective confidence, an online survey.临床医生在统计学方面的知识错觉：评估客观准确性和主观置信度之间的一致性，一项在线调查。
Cogn Res Princ Implic. 2023 Apr 20;8(1):23. doi: 10.1186/s41235-023-00474-1.
10
A Prospective Study of Longitudinal Risks of Cognitive Deficit for People Undergoing Glioblastoma Surgery Using a Tablet Computer Cognition Testing Battery: Towards Personalized Understanding of Risks to Cognitive Function.一项使用平板电脑认知测试组合对胶质母细胞瘤手术患者认知缺陷纵向风险的前瞻性研究：迈向对认知功能风险的个性化理解。
J Pers Med. 2023 Jan 31;13(2):278. doi: 10.3390/jpm13020278.
本文引用的文献
1
Strategies to help patients understand risks.帮助患者理解风险的策略。
BMJ. 2003 Sep 27;327(7417):745-8. doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7417.745.
2
Explaining risks: turning numerical data into meaningful pictures.解释风险：将数值数据转化为有意义的图表。
BMJ. 2002 Apr 6;324(7341):827-30. doi: 10.1136/bmj.324.7341.827.
3
Frequency or probability? A qualitative study of risk communication formats used in health care.频率还是概率？对医疗保健中使用的风险沟通形式的定性研究。
Med Decis Making. 2001 Nov-Dec;21(6):459-67. doi: 10.1177/0272989X0102100604.
4
Presenting risk information--a review of the effects of "framing" and other manipulations on patient outcomes.呈现风险信息——“框架”及其他操控手段对患者结果影响的综述
J Health Commun. 2001 Jan-Mar;6(1):61-82. doi: 10.1080/10810730150501413.
5
Medicine. Communicating statistical information.医学。统计信息交流。
Science. 2000 Dec 22;290(5500):2261-2. doi: 10.1126/science.290.5500.2261.
6
Disease impact number and population impact number: population perspectives to measures of risk and benefit.疾病影响数和人群影响数：从人群角度看风险与获益的衡量指标
BMJ. 2000 Oct 14;321(7266):950-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.321.7266.950.
7
The visual communication of risk.风险的视觉传达。
J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr. 1999(25):149-63. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.jncimonographs.a024191.
8
How can we help people make sense of medical data?我们如何帮助人们理解医学数据？
Eff Clin Pract. 1999 Jul-Aug;2(4):176-83.
9
Efficacy of bilateral prophylactic mastectomy in women with a family history of breast cancer.双侧预防性乳房切除术对有乳腺癌家族史女性的疗效。
N Engl J Med. 1999 Jan 14;340(2):77-84. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199901143400201.
10
Does the frame affect the picture? A study into how attitudes to screening for cancer are affected by the way benefits are expressed.
J Med Screen. 1998;5(3):137-40. doi: 10.1136/jms.5.3.137.
Zotero 插件