[Principal component analysis and integral methods of cerebral vascular hemodynamic parameters].

Cao Yi-feng, Wang Gui-qing, Huang Jiu-yi, Guo Xiu-e, Guo Zuo, Yang Yong-ju, Feng Chun-hong

Shanghai Institute of Cerebral Vascular Disease Prevention and Cure, Shanghai 200433, China.

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2003 Sep;24(9):798-800.

OBJECTIVE

To establish a predicting model for stroke according to cerebral vascular hemodynamic indexes and major risk factors of stroke.

METHODS

Participants selected from a stroke cohort with 25,355 population in China. The first step was to carry out principal component analysis using CVHI. Logistic regression with principal component and main risk factors of stroke were then served as independent variables and stroke come on as dependent variables. The predictive model was established according to coefficient of regression and probability of each participant was also estimated. Finally, ROC curve was protracted and predictive efficacy was measured.

RESULTS

The accumulative contribution rates of four principal components were 58.1%, 79.4%, 88.4% and 94.6% respectively. Seven variables were being selected into the equation with the first to fourth principal component as history of hypertension, age and sex. Area under ROC curve was 0.855 and optimal cut-off point was probability over 0.05. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of stroke prediction were 80.7%, 78.5% and 78.5% respectively.