Marques Paul R, Tippetts A Scott, Voas Robert B
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland 20705, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2003 Sep;4(3):188-94. doi: 10.1080/15389580309874.
This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression show that BAC elevations >.02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p<.0001) than even prior DUI (p<.006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec;.04% Alberta). Charts tracking the Monday-Friday timing of elevated BAC tests by hour are nearly identical for both provinces. The most elevated BAC tests occurred between 7 and 9 A.M. Monday to Friday, even though most vehicle start attempts occurred much later in the day. This higher rate of elevated morning BAC likely represents drinking from the prior evening with alcohol not yet cleared from circulation; those with elevated BAC in the early morning were more likely to have a repeat offense even after accounting for prior DUI and the higher overall rate of elevated BAC tests. This is viewed as evidence of a drinking problem that will lead to impaired driving after the controlling function of the interlock is removed. Policy changes are discussed that might take better advantage of interlock information to improve the public response to drunk driving.
本报告总结了2002年10月29日在佛罗里达州维罗海滩举行的第三届年度点火联锁研讨会上所展示的证据。点火联锁装置可在血液酒精浓度（BAC）升高时阻止汽车启动。我们回顾了一些先前的研究工作，并介绍了此前未发表的研究结果，以证明酒精点火联锁装置记录的数据能够预先预测未来酒后驾车（DUI）风险的方式。本报告中使用的数据来自加拿大艾伯塔省约2200名点火联锁装置使用者以及加拿大魁北克省约8000名联锁装置使用者；艾伯塔省的数据集包含550万次呼气测试，魁北克省的数据集包含1880万次呼气测试。所有测试均带有时间和日期标记，这些信息被用于描述BAC和车辆使用模式，以及在联锁装置从车辆上拆除后BAC升高与DUI犯罪之间的关系。Cox回归分析结果表明，BAC升高>.02-.04%比先前的DUI（p<.006）更能有效预测再次发生DUI（p<.0001），而先前的DUI通常被认为是驾驶员风险的最强指标。显然，先前的DUI对于衡量初犯者的风险并无用处。多次违法且联锁装置记录的BAC测试多次升高的驾驶员更有可能再次酒后驾车。当直接比较两个省份的联锁程序时，驾驶员在被要求使用酒精点火联锁装置期间所进行的BAC测试升高的时间和模式在每日和每小时的基础上都非常相似。两个省份在周六和周日的测试升高率较高，而在周二的测试升高率最低。尽管两个省份遵循不同的联锁锁定点（魁北克省为.02%；艾伯塔省为.04%），但测试升高的绝对率相似。两个省份按小时跟踪周一至周五BAC测试升高时间的图表几乎相同。BAC测试升高最多的时段是周一至周五上午7点至9点，尽管大多数车辆启动尝试发生在当天晚些时候。早晨BAC升高率较高可能表明前一晚饮酒后酒精尚未从体内清除；即使考虑到先前的DUI以及BAC测试升高的总体率较高，清晨BAC升高的人更有可能再次违法。这被视为存在饮酒问题的证据，该问题将在联锁装置的控制功能解除后导致驾驶能力受损。文中还讨论了政策变化，这些变化可能会更好地利用联锁信息来改善公众对酒后驾车的应对措施。
