Marques Paul R, Tippetts A Scott, Voas Robert B
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, 11710 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300, Calverton, Maryland 20705, USA.
J Stud Alcohol. 2003 Jan;64(1):83-92. doi: 10.15288/jsa.2003.64.83.
This work was conducted to find practical predictors that anticipate which driving under the influence (DUI) offenders will continue to drink and drive after a period of alcohol ignition interlock-controlled driving ends. The interlock prevents impaired driving by requiring a low blood alcohol concentration (BAC) breath sample before allowing an engine to start. Each breath test is recorded. The study evaluated the interlock record as a predictor of future DUI offenses relative to driver records and self-report items.
Subjects were 2,273 DUI offenders in Alberta, Canada, who used an interlock to gain full reinstatement of driving privileges; for 2,134, the installed periods ranged from 5 to 30 months. A median of 8.1 breath tests was logged for each installed day; 9.9 tests were taken on each day of vehicle use (4.3 starts plus 5.6 running retests). Predictors of postinterlock repeat DUI were compared by sensitivity and survival analyses.
Although 69% of all interlock users had at least one BAC test > or = .04% (a "fail" test) within the first 5 months, only 9% were reconvicted up to 4 years after interlock removal. Failed interlock tests proportional to all BAC tests taken was the best predictor of driver recidivism risk during the years following interlock removal.
The interlock record provides new information, particularly about drivers with no prior DUI offenses. Prior moving violations and driving while suspended convictions, although better predictors than questionnaire data, were poorer than interlock records and prior DUI offenses. The alcohol interlock, already recognized as a useful control device, warrants attention for DUI prediction as well.
开展这项研究是为了找到实用的预测指标，以预判哪些酒后驾车（DUI）违法者在一段时间的酒精点火联锁控制驾驶结束后会继续酒后驾车。联锁装置通过在发动机启动前要求提供低血液酒精浓度（BAC）的呼气样本，防止酒驾。每次呼气测试都会被记录下来。该研究评估了联锁记录作为未来酒驾违法预测指标相对于驾驶员记录和自我报告项目的情况。
研究对象是加拿大艾伯塔省的2273名酒后驾车违法者，他们使用联锁装置以完全恢复驾驶特权；对于其中2134人，联锁装置的安装时长在5至30个月之间。每个安装日记录的呼气测试中位数为8.1次；在车辆使用的每一天进行9.9次测试（4.3次启动测试加上5.6次行驶中的复测）。通过敏感性分析和生存分析比较联锁解除后再次酒驾的预测指标。
尽管在所有使用联锁装置的人中，69%在最初5个月内至少有一次BAC测试结果≥0.04%（“不合格”测试），但在联锁装置拆除后长达4年的时间里，只有9%的人再次被定罪。与所进行的所有BAC测试相比，联锁测试不合格是联锁装置拆除后几年内驾驶员再次犯罪风险的最佳预测指标。
联锁记录提供了新的信息，特别是对于没有先前酒驾违法记录的驾驶员。先前的交通违规和吊销驾照期间驾车的定罪记录，虽然比问卷调查数据更能预测，但比联锁记录和先前的酒驾违法记录要差。酒精联锁装置已被公认为一种有用的控制设备，在酒驾预测方面也值得关注。
