Levetin Estelle, Van de Water Peter K
Department of Biological Science, University of Tulsa, 600 South College, Tulsa, OK 74104, USA.
Immunol Allergy Clin North Am. 2003 Aug;23(3):423-42. doi: 10.1016/s0889-8561(03)00019-5.
Pollen forecasting is becoming increasingly important to allergists as an adjunct to effective patient care. Forecasts allow patients to avoid exposure to high pollen levels and prompt them to take prophylactic medication and to plan outdoor activities for periods of low pollen levels. Investigators are making progress in developing effective models for daily and seasonal forecasts for important pollen allergens; however, current models are limited to specific geographic areas. Models for the onset of the season for spring tree pollen are based on the chilling and heat units that are required before flowering can occur. Models for pollen season severity are based on regression analysis of preseason meteorologic conditions, and models for daily forecasts are based on the normal pollen curve and responses to day-to-day meteorologic conditions. When winds are favorable, long-distance transport can introduce allergenic pollen types into a local area. The Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecasting model, which combines day-to-day release forecasts at source areas and dispersion forecasts to downwind areas, has been reasonablly successful over the past 4 years. All pollen forecasting models are dependent on accurate meteorologic forecasts, and pollen forecasting will become more accurate as meteorologic forecasts improve.
对过敏症专科医生而言，花粉预报作为有效治疗患者的辅助手段正变得越来越重要。预报能让患者避免暴露在高花粉浓度环境中，促使他们服用预防性药物，并在花粉浓度低的时段安排户外活动。研究人员在为重要花粉过敏原开发有效的每日和季节性预报模型方面取得了进展；然而，目前的模型仅限于特定地理区域。春季树木花粉季节开始的模型是基于开花前所需的低温和热量单位。花粉季节严重程度的模型基于季前气象条件的回归分析，每日预报模型则基于正常花粉曲线和对日常气象条件的响应。当风向有利时，远距离传输会将致敏花粉类型带入当地。在过去4年里，结合源区每日释放预报和下风区扩散预报的山地雪松花粉预报模型取得了相当大的成功。所有花粉预报模型都依赖于准确的气象预报，随着气象预报的改进，花粉预报将变得更加准确。
