Curran Mark A J, van Ommen Tas D, Morgan Vin I, Phillips Katrina L, Palmer Anne S
Department of the Environment and Heritage, Australian Antarctic Division, and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
Science. 2003 Nov 14;302(5648):1203-6. doi: 10.1126/science.1087888.
The instrumental record of Antarctic sea ice in recent decades does not reveal a clear signature of warming despite observational evidence from coastal Antarctica. Here we report a significant correlation (P < 0.002) between methanesulphonic acid (MSA) concentrations from a Law Dome ice core and 22 years of satellite-derived sea ice extent (SIE) for the 80 degrees E to 140 degrees E sector. Applying this instrumental calibration to longer term MSA data (1841 to 1995 A.D.) suggests that there has been a 20% decline in SIE since about 1950. The decline is not uniform, showing large cyclical variations, with periods of about 11 years, that confuse trend detection over the relatively short satellite era.
尽管南极洲沿海地区有观测证据表明气候变暖，但近几十年来南极海冰的仪器记录并未显示出明显的变暖迹象。在此，我们报告了劳穹冰芯中甲烷磺酸（MSA）浓度与东经80度至140度区域22年卫星衍生海冰范围（SIE）之间的显著相关性（P < 0.002）。将这种仪器校准应用于更长时间的MSA数据（公元1841年至1995年）表明，自1950年左右以来，海冰范围下降了20%。这种下降并不均匀，呈现出约11年周期的大幅周期性变化，这使得在相对较短的卫星观测时代难以检测到趋势。
