Factors affecting chronic renal failure progression: results from a multicentre trial. The Northern Italian Cooperative Study Group.

In order to evaluate the prognostic factors concerning the rate of progressive deterioration of renal function, we made an inductive analysis of the behaviour of 456 patients in a multicentre, formal prospective trial aimed at clarifying the possible role of protein restriction in retarding the progression of chronic renal insufficiency (CRI). The main clinical and laboratory findings in patients whose plasma creatinine (PCr) levels doubled in comparison with baseline randomization values or who needed dialysis within 24 months after onset of the study were compared with those of the other patients. In addition, independently of the assigned diet, we tested the main variables that might affect CRI progression (sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, change in body weight, hematocrit, calcium-phosphate product, proteinuria, protein catabolic rate, total cholesterol and triglycerides). We used multiple regression analyses and also plotted the mean values of these parameters in each patient against an estimate of the deterioration of chronic renal failure based on the difference between the final and the initial reciprocal of the PCr and the creatinine clearance (CCr) levels. A descriptive analysis of the behaviour of PCr in the three CRI groups and in the four underlying diseases groups was made. PCr levels at entry, underlying disease and proteinuria were prognostic factors for CRI progression. The increase in PCr was 0.0102 mg/dl/month in patients with nephrosclerosis, 0.0203 mg/dl/month in interstitial nephropathy, 0.0360 mg/dl/month in glomerulonephritis and 0.0704 mg/dl/month in polycystic kidney disease.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)