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国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)公众剂量系数的可靠性。III. 钚作为放射性核素全身生物动力学不确定性的案例研究。

Reliability of the ICRP's dose coefficients for members of the public. III. Plutonium as a case study of uncertainties in the systemic biokinetics of radionuclides.

作者信息

Leggett R W

机构信息

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1060 Commerce Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA.

出版信息

Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2003;106(2):103-20. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a006340.

Abstract

This paper is a case study of the validity of different data sources and modelling approaches commonly used to build biokinetic models for radionuclides. The paper examines the basis and apparent predictive accuracy of each of the biokinetic models for Pu used over the years by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in view of recent improvements in the database. The results of this study and similar retrospective studies for other elements suggest the following five points. (1) Extrapolation of biokinetic data from laboratory animals to man is particularly uncertain for the liver due to qualitative differences among species in the handling of many elements by this organ. (2) As a 'default' approach to biokinetic modelling or model assessment, biokinetic data for unhealthy human subjects should be given higher weight than information extrapolated across animal species or chemical families, but there are counter-examples. (3) Little confidence can be placed in biokinetic model predictions for long times after exposure based solely on curve fits to short-term biokinetic data. (4) Bioassay and dosimetry models for a radionuclide should not be developed separately. (5) Where feasible, the systemic biokinetic model for a radionuclide should be developed within a physiologically realistic model structure, because this allows biokinetic data from experimental studies to be supplemented with physiological information, provides a basis for extrapolation of data across animals species or chemical families, results in models that can be used for both bioassay interpretation and dosimetry, and provides a logical basis for extrapolation of data to subgroups of the population (e.g., various ages) or to times outside the period of observation.

摘要

本文是一项关于常用于构建放射性核素生物动力学模型的不同数据来源和建模方法有效性的案例研究。鉴于数据库的最新改进,本文审视了国际放射防护委员会(ICRP)多年来使用的每种钚生物动力学模型的依据和明显的预测准确性。本研究以及针对其他元素的类似回顾性研究结果表明以下五点。(1)由于不同物种的肝脏在处理许多元素方面存在质的差异,从实验动物外推生物动力学数据到人类时,肝脏的数据尤其不确定。(2)作为生物动力学建模或模型评估的“默认”方法,不健康人类受试者的生物动力学数据应比跨动物物种或化学族外推得到的信息给予更高权重,但也有反例。(3)仅基于对短期生物动力学数据的曲线拟合来预测暴露后长时间的生物动力学模型,可信度很低。(4)放射性核素的生物测定和剂量测定模型不应分开开发。(5)在可行的情况下,放射性核素的全身生物动力学模型应在生理现实的模型结构内开发,因为这允许用生理信息补充实验研究的生物动力学数据,为跨动物物种或化学族外推数据提供基础,得到可用于生物测定解释和剂量测定的模型,并为将数据外推到人群亚组(如不同年龄)或观察期外的时间提供逻辑基础。

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