Scott Ian
School of Public Health, Deakin University, Melbourne, Australia.
Inj Control Saf Promot. 2003 Dec;10(4):227-36. doi: 10.1076/icsp.10.4.227.16783.
As an affluent and warm weather country, Australia faced an epidemic of drowning in children under five as the popularity of home pools increased in the late 1960s and early 1970s. In one state child drowning rose by 6.62 per 100,000 in the five years from 1968. Variation across jurisdictions in actions to regulate domestic pools has resulted in Australia representing an unfortunate natural experiment in interventions to prevent child drowning in pools. Mechanisms adopted by various authorities were analysed in detail to identify factors that contributed to success and failure in regulating domestic pools. Despite early identification of the problem and development of what were later demonstrated to be effective interventions, best practice solutions were not established in any jurisdiction until 2002, 25 years after identification of the problem. Key failures in intervention were found to be: failure to act in a timely way, flawed regulation, blockage of timely action and repeal of effective state regulation under political pressure, and blockage of effective standards. Lessons are identified as: inherent weaknesses in the standard setting process, failure of interventions to address major risk categories, failure to act before the hazard grew, failure to consider lesser interventions for tactical reasons, failure to pay attention to advocates, and the need for continuing effort. The paper argues that analysis of the identification of the problem, development of interventions and implementation of mechanisms of prevention illustrate where systemic changes are required and indicate lessons that should be applied in developing and implementing future interventions.
作为一个富裕且气候温暖的国家,随着家庭泳池在20世纪60年代末和70年代初日益普及,澳大利亚面临五岁以下儿童溺水的流行病。在一个州,从1968年起的五年里,儿童溺水率每十万人中上升了6.62例。各司法管辖区在规范家庭泳池行动上的差异,使得澳大利亚成为预防儿童泳池溺水干预措施方面一个不幸的自然实验。详细分析了各当局采用的机制,以确定在规范家庭泳池方面促成成功与失败的因素。尽管问题早被发现且后来证明有效的干预措施也已制定,但直到2002年,即问题发现25年后,任何司法管辖区都未确立最佳实践解决方案。干预措施的主要失败之处被发现为:未及时采取行动、监管存在缺陷、及时行动受阻以及在政治压力下有效州监管被废除,还有有效标准受阻。汲取的教训包括:标准制定过程中的固有弱点、干预措施未能解决主要风险类别、在危险加剧前未采取行动、出于策略原因未考虑较小的干预措施、未关注倡导者以及需要持续努力。本文认为,对问题识别、干预措施制定及预防机制实施的分析,说明了需要进行系统性变革的地方,并指出了在制定和实施未来干预措施时应应用的经验教训。