Bermejo A, Veeken H, Berra A
Spanish Red Cross, La Paz, Bolivia.
AIDS. 1992 Oct;6(10):1203-6. doi: 10.1097/00002030-199210000-00022.
To study the impact of the HIV epidemic on tuberculosis (TB) incidence in developing countries.
A simple mathematical model is constructed using figures from published reports to estimate the rise of TB incidence as the HIV epidemic expands.
Two groups with different risk of developing TB are identified: individuals with dual infection of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the rest of the population. The model is based on a combination of the incidence and the percentage of TB in these two groups. The expected rise in TB incidence and the percentage of TB cases that will be HIV-positive are plotted against the prevalence of HIV.
Unless appropriate action is taken, TB incidence in developing countries will double as the prevalence of HIV infection reaches 13 per hundred adults.
研究艾滋病流行对发展中国家结核病发病率的影响。
利用已发表报告中的数据构建一个简单的数学模型，以估计随着艾滋病流行范围扩大结核病发病率的上升情况。
确定两组患结核病风险不同的人群：同时感染艾滋病毒和结核分枝杆菌的个体以及其他人群。该模型基于这两组人群中结核病的发病率和百分比。将结核病发病率的预期上升以及将呈艾滋病毒阳性的结核病病例百分比与艾滋病毒流行率进行对比绘制。
除非采取适当行动，否则随着艾滋病毒感染率达到每百名成年人中有13人感染，发展中国家的结核病发病率将翻倍。
