Hacker J David
Department of History, Binghamton University, SUNY, PO Box 6000, Binghamton, NY 13902, USA.
Demography. 2003 Nov;40(4):605-20. doi: 10.1353/dem.2003.0035.
In this article, I rely on new estimates of nineteenth-century mortality and the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to construct new estimates of white fertility in the nineteenth-century United States. Unlike previous estimates that showed a long-term decline in overall fertility beginning at or before the turn of the nineteenth century, the new estimates suggest that U.S. fertility did not begin its secular decline until circa 1840. Moreover, new estimates of white marital fertility, based on "own-children" methods, suggest that the decline in marital fertility did not begin in the nation as a whole until after the Civil War (1861-1865).
在本文中，我依据19世纪死亡率的新估计值以及综合公共使用微观数据系列，构建了19世纪美国白人生育率的新估计值。与之前显示总体生育率在19世纪之交或之前就开始长期下降的估计值不同，新估计值表明美国生育率直到约1840年才开始其长期下降。此外，基于“亲生子女”方法的白人婚内生育率新估计值表明，婚内生育率的下降直到内战后（1861 - 1865年）才在全国范围内开始。
