Hacker J David
University of Minnesota, Department of History, College of Liberal Arts, 1110 Heller Hall/Del. Code 7062, 271 -- 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
Hist Methods. 2020;53(1):28-52. doi: 10.1080/01615440.2019.1664357. Epub 2019 Oct 9.
This paper describes a method to reconstruct complete birth histories for women in the 1900 and 1910 U. S. census IPUMS samples. The method is an extension of an earlier method developed by Luther and Cho (1988). The basic method relies on the number of children ever born, number of children surviving, number of children coresident in the household and age-specific fertility rates for the population to probabilistically assign an "age" to deceased and unmatched children. Modifications include the addition of an iterative Poisson regression model to fine-tune age-specific fertility inputs. The potential of complete birth histories for the study of the U.S. fertility transition is illustrated with a few examples.
本文描述了一种为1900年和1910年美国人口普查集成公共使用微数据样本（IPUMS）中的女性重建完整生育史的方法。该方法是对路德和赵（1988年）早期开发的方法的扩展。基本方法依靠曾经生育的子女数量、存活子女数量、同住一户的子女数量以及特定年龄的人口生育率，来概率性地为已故和未匹配的子女赋予一个“年龄”。修改内容包括增加一个迭代泊松回归模型，以微调特定年龄的生育率输入。通过几个例子说明了完整生育史在研究美国生育转变方面的潜力。
