Bergstrom Carl T, Bergstrom Theodore C
Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Jan 20;101(3):897-902. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0305628101. Epub 2004 Jan 8.
Scientific publishing is rapidly shifting from a paper-based system to one of predominantly electronic distribution, in which universities purchase site licenses for online access to journal contents. Will these changes necessarily benefit the scientific community? By using basic microeconomics and elementary statistical theory, we address this question and find a surprising answer. If a journal is priced to maximize the publisher's profits, scholars on average are likely to be worse off when universities purchase site licenses than they would be if access were by individual subscriptions only. However, site licenses are not always disadvantageous. Journals issued by professional societies and university presses are often priced so as to maximize subscriptions while recovering average costs. When such journals are sustained by institutional site licenses, the net benefits to the scientific community are larger than if these journals are sold only by individual subscriptions.
科学出版正在迅速从基于纸质的系统转向主要以电子发行的系统，在这种系统中，大学购买网站许可证以在线获取期刊内容。这些变化一定会使科学界受益吗？通过运用基础微观经济学和基本统计理论，我们探讨了这个问题并得出了一个惊人的答案。如果一本期刊定价是为了使出版商利润最大化，那么与仅通过个人订阅获取访问权限相比，当大学购买网站许可证时，学者平均而言可能会过得更差。然而，网站许可证并不总是不利的。专业协会和大学出版社发行的期刊通常定价是为了在收回平均成本的同时使订阅量最大化。当这些期刊通过机构网站许可证得以维持时，科学界获得的净收益要大于这些期刊仅通过个人订阅销售时的情况。
