Abdel-Aty Mohamed
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA.
J Safety Res. 2003;34(5):597-603. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2003.05.009.
The occurrence and outcome of traffic crashes have long been recognized as complex events involving interactions between many factors, including the roadway, driver, traffic characteristics, and the environment. This study is concerned with the outcome of the crash.
Driver injury severity levels are analyzed using the ordered probit modeling methodology. Models were developed for roadway sections, signalized intersections, and toll plazas in Central Florida. All models showed the significance of driver's age, gender, seat belt use, point of impact, speed, and vehicle type on the injury severity level. Other variables were found significant only in specific cases.
A driver's violation was significant in the case of signalized intersections. Alcohol, lighting conditions, and the existence of a horizontal curve affected the likelihood of injuries in the roadway sections' model. A variable specific to toll plazas, vehicles equipped with Electronic Toll Collection (ETC), had a positive effect on the probability of higher injury severity at toll plazas. Other variables that entered into some of the models were weather condition, area type, and some interaction factors. This study illustrates the similarities and the differences in the factors that affect injury severity between different locations.
长期以来，交通事故的发生及后果一直被视为复杂事件，涉及诸多因素之间的相互作用，包括道路、驾驶员、交通特性和环境等。本研究关注的是碰撞的后果。
使用有序概率模型方法分析驾驶员伤害严重程度等级。针对佛罗里达州中部的道路路段、信号控制交叉口和收费站开发了模型。所有模型均显示驾驶员的年龄、性别、安全带使用情况、碰撞点、速度和车辆类型对伤害严重程度等级具有显著影响。其他变量仅在特定情况下具有显著性。
在信号控制交叉口的情况下，驾驶员违规行为具有显著性。酒精、照明条件和水平曲线的存在影响了道路路段模型中的受伤可能性。收费站特有的一个变量，即配备电子不停车收费系统（ETC）的车辆，对收费站较高伤害严重程度的概率有积极影响。纳入部分模型的其他变量包括天气状况、区域类型和一些相互作用因素。本研究阐明了不同地点影响伤害严重程度的因素之间的异同。
