Gangwon Institute, Chuncheon 24265, Republic of Korea.
Department of City and Regional Planning, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 28;20(3):2338. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032338.
The purpose of this research is (1) to investigate the relationship between crash severity and the age and gender of the at-fault driver, the socio-economic characteristics of the surrounding environment, and road conditions, and (2) to explain the probability of a bodily injury crash, including fatality, with the alternative being a property damage only crash. In contrast to earlier research that has focused on young and old drivers, age is considered here on its lifetime continuum. A logit model is adopted and the gender and age of the at-fault drivers are part of the independent explanatory variables. The unit of analysis is the individual crash. Since age is a continuous variable, this analysis shows more precisely how age impacts accident severity and identifies when age has little effect. According to the results, the type of vehicle, timing of the crash, type of road and intersection, road condition, regional and locational factors, and socio-economic characteristic have a significant impact on crashes. Regarding the effect of age, when an accident occurs the probability of bodily injury or fatality is 0.703 for female drivers, and 0.718 for male drivers at 15 years of age. These probabilities decline very slightly to 0.696 and 0.711, respectively, around 33 years of age, then very slightly increase to 0.697 and 0.712, respectively, around 47.5 years of age. The results show that age affects crash severity following a polynomial curve. While the overall pattern is one of a downward trend with age, this trend is weak until the senior years. The policy implications of the results are discussed.
(1) 调查事故严重程度与过错方驾驶员的年龄和性别、周边环境的社会经济特征和道路状况之间的关系；(2) 解释人身伤害事故（包括死亡事故）的可能性，替代方案为仅财产损失事故。与早期仅关注年轻和老年驾驶员的研究不同，此处将年龄视为其终生连续体。采用对数模型，过错方驾驶员的性别和年龄是独立解释变量的一部分。分析的单位是个体事故。由于年龄是连续变量，因此该分析更准确地显示了年龄如何影响事故严重程度，并确定了年龄影响较小的情况。根据结果，车辆类型、事故发生时间、道路和交叉口类型、道路状况、区域和位置因素以及社会经济特征对事故有重大影响。关于年龄的影响，当发生事故时，女性驾驶员发生人身伤害或死亡的概率为 0.703，男性驾驶员为 0.718，年龄为 15 岁。这些概率分别降至非常低的 0.696 和 0.711，分别在 33 岁左右，然后非常轻微地增加至 0.697 和 0.712，分别在 47.5 岁左右。结果表明，年龄对事故严重程度呈多项式曲线影响。虽然整体趋势是随年龄下降，但直到老年期，这种趋势都很微弱。讨论了结果的政策含义。
