Gorini Giuseppe, Chellini Elisabetta, Querci Andrea, Seniori Costantini Adele
UO Epidemiologia ambientale occupazionale, Centro per lo studio e la prevenzione oncologica (CSPO), Istituto scientifico della Regione Toscana, Firenze.
Epidemiol Prev. 2003 Sep-Oct;27(5):285-90.
This report presents the impact of smoking habits on Italian mortality in 1998. Estimates of smoking-attributable fraction (FAF), smoking-attributable mortality (MAF), and years of potential life lost (YPLLf) were calculated using the SAMMEC software (CDC, USA), and the Peto method. During 1998, using the SAMMEC software, smoking caused approximately 83,650 premature deaths in Italy (67,600 in men, 16,000 in women, and 45 in infants), equal to 15.1% of mortality in adults above the age of 35 years (24.4% of mortality in men and 5.8% in women). YPLLf were about 900,000 in men, 221,000 in women, and 3,500 in infants. Using the Peto method, smoking-attributable deaths were about 70,200 (59,600 in men and 10,600 in women), equal to 12.7% of mortality in adults older than 35 years (21.5% of mortality in men and 3.9% in women). YPLLf were about 806,000 in men and 142,000 in women. Among adults, for both methods most smoking-related deaths were attributable to lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, chronic airways obstruction, and cerebrovascular disease. Differences between the estimates of the two methods underline the gap between a more conservative estimate (Peto method) and a less restrictive one (SAMMEC software). Given validity for both methods, it is likely smoking habits caused between 70,000 and 83,000 deaths in Italy during 1998.
本报告展示了吸烟习惯对1998年意大利死亡率的影响。使用美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）的SAMMEC软件及佩托方法，计算了吸烟归因分数（FAF）、吸烟归因死亡率（MAF）和潜在寿命损失年数（YPLLf）。1998年期间，使用SAMMEC软件计算得出，吸烟在意大利导致约83,650例过早死亡（男性67,600例，女性16,000例，婴儿45例），占35岁以上成年人死亡率的15.1%（男性死亡率的24.4%，女性死亡率的5.8%）。男性的YPLLf约为900,000，女性为221,000，婴儿为3,500。使用佩托方法，吸烟归因死亡约为70,200例（男性59,600例，女性10,600例），占35岁以上成年人死亡率的12.7%（男性死亡率的21.5%，女性死亡率的3.9%）。男性的YPLLf约为806,000，女性为142,000。在成年人中，对于两种方法而言，大多数与吸烟相关的死亡归因于肺癌、缺血性心脏病、慢性气道阻塞和脑血管疾病。两种方法估计值之间的差异突显了较为保守的估计方法（佩托方法）和限制较少的估计方法（SAMMEC软件）之间的差距。鉴于两种方法都有效，1998年期间吸烟习惯在意大利可能导致了70,000至83,000例死亡。
