Bonnefon Jean-François, Hilton Denis J
Maison de la Recherche, University of Toulouse-2, Toulouse, France.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2004 Jan;30(1):28-37. doi: 10.1037/0278-7393.30.1.28.
Consequential conditionals are defined as "if P then Q" statements, where P is an action, and Q a predicted outcome of this action, which is either desirable or undesirable to the agent. Experiment 1 shows that desirable (viz. undesirable) outcomes invite an inference to the truth (viz. falsity) of their antecedent. Experiment 2 shows that the more extreme the outcome is, the stronger the invited inference is. Experiment 3 shows that modus ponens from premises "If A then C, A" can be suppressed with the introduction of a consequential conditional, "If C then Q," where Q is an undesirable outcome. Experiment 4 shows that the more undesirable Q is, the larger the suppression is. The authors discuss how these results can enrich current approaches of conditional inference on the basis of mental models, complementary necessary conditions, and conditional probabilities.
结果性条件句被定义为“如果P那么Q”的陈述，其中P是一个行为，Q是该行为的一个预测结果，对主体而言该结果要么是合意的，要么是不合意的。实验1表明，合意的（即不合意的）结果会引发对其前件为真（即假）的推断。实验2表明，结果越极端，引发的推断就越强。实验3表明，当前提为“如果A那么C，A”时，通过引入一个结果性条件句“如果C那么Q”（其中Q是一个不合意的结果），肯定前件式推理会受到抑制。实验4表明，Q越不合意，抑制作用就越大。作者们讨论了这些结果如何能够在心理模型、补充必要条件和条件概率的基础上丰富当前的条件推理方法。
