Olowokure B, Saunders P J, Dyer J A, Kibble A J
Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, University of Birmingham, UK.
Occup Environ Med. 2004 Feb;61(2):177-9. doi: 10.1136/oem.2002.002899.
To determine whether there were temporal or seasonal patterns in the occurrence of chemical incidents reported to the West Midlands Chemical Incident Surveillance System, UK.
A retrospective analysis of reports maintained on a computerised database was carried out for information received from January 1997 to December 2001.
Annual numbers of events increased significantly from 77 (7.5%) in 1997 to 282 (27.4%) in 2001. Compared to the average of other seasons, proportionately more incidents occurred in the summer (29.3%). Compared with the average of other days, incidents were more likely to occur on Thursdays (17.1%) and least likely on Saturdays (8.9%). When grouped together on a six hourly basis incidents were most frequent between 12 00 and 17 59 (31.1%) and least frequent between 00 00 and 05 59 (21.2%).
The surveillance system shows that chemical incidents do not occur randomly but have marked temporal and seasonal variation. These results have implications for service provision, training, and the development of preventive strategies.
确定向英国西米德兰兹郡化学事故监测系统报告的化学事故发生是否存在时间或季节模式。
对1997年1月至2001年12月从计算机化数据库中获取的报告进行回顾性分析。
事件的年度数量从1997年的77起（7.5%）显著增加到2001年的282起（27.4%）。与其他季节的平均水平相比，夏季发生的事故比例相对更高（29.3%）。与其他日期的平均水平相比，事故更有可能在周四发生（17.1%），而在周六发生的可能性最小（8.9%）。按每六小时分组时，事故在12:00至17:59之间最为频繁（31.1%），而在00:00至05:59之间最不频繁（21.2%）。
监测系统表明，化学事故并非随机发生，而是具有明显的时间和季节变化。这些结果对服务提供、培训和预防策略的制定具有重要意义。
