Survival of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms in the west of Ireland: do prognostic indicators of outcome exist?

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA) is a demanding vascular surgical problem and the cause of significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors that influence outcome. Over 6 years, 42 ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms were operated on with a mean diameter of 7.2 cm. RAAA was defined as free intraperitoneal rupture. Data were collected retrospectively from hospital medical records. The male: female ratio was 8:1 and the mean age was 74 years (range 55-89). Fifteen were in hypovolemic shock and 27 patients were clinically stable. The perioperative mortality rate for the 15 shocked patients was 60% (9 patients) and the 1-year cumulative survival rate was 33%. The perioperative mortality rate for the 27 clinically stable patients was 40% (11 patients) and the 1-year cumulative survival rate was 56%. Survival curves were constructed for these groups to compare male versus female, age >/= 70 versus age < 70, shocked versus stable, and preoperative hemoglobin (Hb) </= 10 vs > 10. No patient with preoperative cardiac arrest survived more than 24 hours. With VassarStats, the confidence interval for age, gender, hemodynamic status, and preoperative Hb were calculated. The standard weighted mean analysis by ANOVA gave a p value of < 0.001. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 47% (20 of 42) and the 1-year mortality rate was 52% (22 of 42). Male patients over 70 years with RAAA in hypovolemic shock with low Hb have a higher 30-day mortality rate and few survive more than 1 year. The study suggests that each of these 4 parameters separately was not a strong prognostic indicator. Collectively, however, they strongly influence the prognosis of patients with RAAA. These findings strengthen the case for selective treatment for RAAA.