Morita S
Department of Anesthesia, Teikyo University School of Medicine, Ichihara Hospital.
Masui. 1992 Dec;41(12):1966-76.
The world where we practice anesthesia is composed of heterogeneic, multivariate components. Yet, these components are not known with certainty. Nevertheless, we are compelled to make a prediction and, furthermore, to make a decision to treat patients at risk. Therefore, decision making under uncertainty is one of the important issues in clinical practice. A fundamental strategy for such action would be one of statistical thinking process, which is widely applicable in many circumstances to reduce the degree of uncertainty and to construct a tool to deal with uncertainty. Here, topics relevant to statistical thinking and its pitfalls are discussed, including those related to information theory. In short, statistical thinking will, I believe, remain to be valid to make an appropriate prediction and decision in the years to come.
我们实施麻醉的世界由异质性、多变量的成分组成。然而,这些成分并不确切为人所知。尽管如此,我们不得不做出预测,而且还要决定对有风险的患者进行治疗。因此,在不确定性下做出决策是临床实践中的重要问题之一。这种行动的一个基本策略将是统计思维过程之一,它在许多情况下广泛适用,以降低不确定性程度并构建应对不确定性的工具。在此,讨论与统计思维及其陷阱相关的主题,包括与信息论相关的主题。简而言之,我相信统计思维在未来几年仍将有效地做出适当的预测和决策。