Biagiotti R, Periti E, Cariati E, Nannini R
Istituto Policattedra di Ginecologia e Ostetricia, Università degli Studi di Firenze.
Minerva Ginecol. 1992 Dec;44(12):609-12.
Our purpose was to assess the value of sonographic measurement of fetal femur length in the second trimester, as a screening tool for Down's syndrome.
We evaluated a consecutive series of fetuses scanned by a single sonologist at the time of amniocentesis between 15 and 19 weeks. The study group consisted of fetuses with Down's syndrome (N = 16); the control group comprised normal fetuses (N = 1163). A linear regression model of the normal femur length based on biparietal diameter (BPD), was established for our population; the ratios of measured to expected femur length for a viven BPD (FL M/E) were calculated in the two groups. To test statistical significance of observed differences between case and control population, unpaired t test was used. The ability of specific FL M/E cut-off values to discriminate between Down syndrome and normal fetuses was assessed by Fisher's exact test.
The mean ratio of measured to expected femur length was significantly lower in the Down syndrome as compared with control population (0.9473, DS 0.0795) versus 1.0, DS 0.0745) (p < 0.0045). The ratio of 0.91 or less predicted Down's syndrome with a sensitivity of 43.7% and a false-positive rate of 8.6%. For women with risk of one in 250 and one in 1000 of having an affected fetus based on maternal age, a shortened femur yielded positive predictive values of one in 26 and one in 105, respectively.
These results suggest that the sonographic measurement of fetal femur length for the screening of Down syndrome in the low-risk population is hindered by a high false positive rate (about 9%). It follows that the percentage of women requiring an amniocentesis would increase to un unacceptably high level. The utilization of this biometric marker may be helpful, in our opinion, for identifying fetuses at risk for Down syndrome in women between 35 and 38 years of age. These women in fact, are not offered amniocentesis for the prenatal diagnosis of Down's syndrome in the majority of italian institutions. The sonographic measurement of fetal femur length could detect about 45% of fetal Down's syndrome, offering an amniocentesis to 9% of women, with a consequent reduction of the cost required. Only a prospective study can evaluate the efficacy of this method to predict Down syndrome in such group of women.
我们的目的是评估孕中期超声测量胎儿股骨长度作为唐氏综合征筛查工具的价值。
我们评估了在15至19周羊膜穿刺术时由一位超声科医生连续扫描的一系列胎儿。研究组包括唐氏综合征胎儿(N = 16);对照组为正常胎儿(N = 1163)。为我们的人群建立了基于双顶径(BPD)的正常股骨长度线性回归模型;计算两组中给定BPD时测量股骨长度与预期股骨长度的比值(FL M/E)。为检验病例组与对照组人群之间观察到的差异的统计学意义,采用了不成对t检验。通过Fisher精确检验评估特定FL M/E临界值区分唐氏综合征胎儿与正常胎儿的能力。
与对照组相比,唐氏综合征胎儿测量股骨长度与预期股骨长度的平均比值显著更低(0.9473,标准差0.0795)对(1.0,标准差0.0745)(p < 0.0045)。0.91或更低的比值预测唐氏综合征的敏感度为43.7%,假阳性率为8.6%。对于基于母亲年龄有250分之一和1000分之一几率怀有患病胎儿风险的女性,股骨缩短分别产生了26分之一和105分之一的阳性预测值。
这些结果表明,在低风险人群中超声测量胎儿股骨长度用于唐氏综合征筛查受到高假阳性率(约9%)的阻碍。因此,需要进行羊膜穿刺术的女性百分比将增加到不可接受的高水平。我们认为,利用这种生物测量标志物可能有助于识别35至38岁女性中怀有唐氏综合征风险的胎儿。事实上,在大多数意大利机构,这些女性未被提供用于唐氏综合征产前诊断的羊膜穿刺术。超声测量胎儿股骨长度可检测出约45%的胎儿唐氏综合征,为9%的女性提供羊膜穿刺术,从而降低所需成本。只有前瞻性研究才能评估该方法在这类女性中预测唐氏综合征的疗效。