Matyas Csaba
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Sopron, 9401 Sopron, P.O.B. 132, Hungary.
Tree Physiol. 1994 Jul-Sep;14(7_9):797-804. doi: 10.1093/treephys/14.7-8-9.797.
Provenance tests of forest trees, which were originally intended to identify suitable seed sources for planting at different locations, provide valuable data for assessing the response of populations to environmental change. Environmental differences between the location of origin and the planting (test) site have been calculated by principal component analysis and termed ecological distance. Based on ecological distance values, the growth response of tree populations can be modeled as a function of the test site macroclimate. These models can then be used to predict the effects of climatic change on growth and survival. The growth response model predicts that increasing annual mean temperatures will result in accelerated growth if precipitation is sufficient, but only within the limits characteristic of the species. At the southern limits of distribution, growth and competitive ability of the species will decline, leading to successional changes.
林木种源试验最初旨在确定适合在不同地点种植的种子来源，为评估种群对环境变化的响应提供了有价值的数据。通过主成分分析计算了起源地与种植（试验）地点之间的环境差异，并将其称为生态距离。基于生态距离值，可以将树木种群的生长响应建模为试验地点宏观气候的函数。然后，这些模型可用于预测气候变化对生长和存活的影响。生长响应模型预测，如果降水充足，年平均温度升高将导致生长加速，但仅在该物种特有的限度内。在分布的南部界限，该物种的生长和竞争能力将下降，从而导致演替变化。
