Gunn G J, Stott A W, Humphry R W
Epidemiology Research Unit, Veterinary Science Division, Scottish Agricultural College, Drummondhill, Stratherrick Road, Inverness, IV2 4JZ, UK.
Vet J. 2004 Mar;167(2):143-9. doi: 10.1016/S1090-0233(03)00112-6.
Results from an epidemiological model of an outbreak of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) within a Scottish beef suckler herd are presented. These results concurred with field observations and encouraged us to fulfill the objective of providing an estimate of losses due to BVD to assist decision makers. Using the output from the model, estimates were made of losses associated with the outbreak. Without taking into account any financial premiums associated with disease-free status, the estimate of pound 37 (58) mean loss per cow per annum suggests that health schemes and vaccination should be of immediate financial interest to farmers and veterinary advisors.
本文展示了苏格兰肉牛饲养牛群中牛病毒性腹泻（BVD）疫情的流行病学模型结果。这些结果与实地观察结果一致，并促使我们实现提供BVD造成的损失估计值这一目标，以协助决策者。利用该模型的输出结果，对与此次疫情相关的损失进行了估计。在不考虑与无病状态相关的任何财务溢价的情况下，每头母牛每年平均损失37英镑（58美元）的估计表明，健康计划和疫苗接种对农民和兽医顾问应具有直接的财务利益。
