Trend detection via temporal difference model predicts inferior prefrontal cortex activation during acquisition of advantageous action selection.

The process of accurately predicting which actions are associated with advantageous versus disadvantageous outcomes is an important function of daily life. An integral part of this process is being able to detect when the association between an action and an outcome changes. This investigation examined the hypothesis that the inferior prefrontal cortex is critical for the detection of trends and that a trend process derived from the temporal difference model accomplishes this detection. Nineteen normal right-handed volunteers completed 120 4-s trials of a Rock Paper Scissors (RPS) task during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Subjects acquired the selection of advantageous actions during the RPS task. Activations in the medial frontal gyrus (BA 10), left ventrolateral frontal gyrus (BA 11/47), and left pallidum were significantly higher during trials in which subjects acquired the advantageous action. The time course of individually derived trend detection functions was found to be time-locked to the hemodynamic changes in the inferior frontal gyrus. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the inferior prefrontal cortex computes a trend from previously experienced action-outcome sequences based on a value function derived from the temporal difference model.