O'Neill Marie S, Loomis Dana, Borja-Aburto Victor H
Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Environ Res. 2004 Mar;94(3):234-42. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2003.07.002.
We investigated whether the association of daily mortality and ambient ozone differs by age and area social conditions of the region of residence using a time-series analysis. The study setting was metropolitan Mexico City, a high altitude city situated in a valley, with an estimated 20 million inhabitants, large socioeconomic gradients, and ozone levels frequently exceeding international standards. We stratified daily deaths by six census-derived socioeconomic indicators, based on characteristics of the county where decedents lived. We used Poisson regression to model the association between daily mortality and ozone levels (on the day of death and the previous day) in separate models, stratified by area socioeconomic level and age, and controlling for time trends and temperature. Ozone was positively associated with total mortality [0.65% increase per 10 ppb increment, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02%, 1.28%] and for mortality among those over age 65 [1.39% increase per 10 ppb increment, 95% CI: 0.51%, 2.28%]. Associations between ozone and all-age mortality did not show any consistent patterns according to socioeconomic gradients. We conclude that elderly people are at higher risk for ozone-associated mortality. Though county-level social indicators in Mexico City were not strong markers of vulnerability to ozone-associated acute mortality in this analysis, complex associations between individual and area-level factors may exist that would require additional data and further analyses to elucidate.
我们采用时间序列分析方法,研究了每日死亡率与环境臭氧之间的关联是否因居住地区的年龄和区域社会状况而异。研究地点为墨西哥城大都市区,这是一个位于山谷中的高海拔城市,估计有2000万居民,社会经济梯度较大,臭氧水平经常超过国际标准。我们根据死者居住县的特征,将每日死亡人数按六个源自人口普查的社会经济指标进行分层。我们使用泊松回归在单独的模型中对每日死亡率与臭氧水平(死亡当天及前一天)之间的关联进行建模,按区域社会经济水平和年龄分层,并控制时间趋势和温度。臭氧与总死亡率呈正相关[每增加10 ppb增加0.65%,95%置信区间(CI):0.02%,1.28%],与65岁以上人群的死亡率呈正相关[每增加10 ppb增加1.39%,95% CI:0.51%,2.28%]。根据社会经济梯度,臭氧与全年龄段死亡率之间的关联未显示出任何一致模式。我们得出结论,老年人面临与臭氧相关的死亡风险更高。尽管在本分析中,墨西哥城县级社会指标并非与臭氧相关急性死亡率脆弱性的有力标志物,但个体和区域层面因素之间可能存在复杂关联,这需要更多数据和进一步分析来阐明。