Karcher Michael J, Gerland Sebastian, Harms Ingo H, Iosjpe Mikhail, Heldal Hilde E, Kershaw Peter J, Sickel Morten
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, P.O. Box 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany.
J Environ Radioact. 2004;74(1-3):185-98. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2004.01.026.
The radionuclide (99)Tc had been discharged from the nuclear reprocessing facility in Sellafield (UK) into the Irish Sea in increased amounts in the 1990s. We compare the simulated dispersion of (99)Tc in surface water as calculated by a hydrodynamic model and an assessment box model with field-observations from 1996 to 1999 to study concentrations, pathways and travel times. The model results are consistent with the observations and show the typical pathway of dissolved radionuclides from the Irish Sea via the North Sea along the Norwegian Coast. Subsequently the contaminated water separates into three branches of which the two Arctic branches bear the potential for future monitoring of the signal in the next decades. The results of the hydrodynamic model indicate a large variability of surface concentrations in the West Spitsbergen Current which has implications for future monitoring strategies. According to the observed and simulated distributions we suggest an improved box model structure to better capture the pattern for concentrations at the surface.
20世纪90年代，放射性核素（99）Tc从英国塞拉菲尔德的核后处理设施排入爱尔兰海的量有所增加。我们将水动力模型和评估箱模型计算得出的（99）Tc在地表水的模拟扩散情况与1996年至1999年的实地观测结果进行比较，以研究其浓度、路径和传播时间。模型结果与观测结果一致，显示了溶解态放射性核素从爱尔兰海经北海沿挪威海岸的典型路径。随后，受污染的水体分为三个分支，其中两个北极分支在未来几十年具有监测信号的潜力。水动力模型的结果表明，西斯匹次卑尔根洋流表面浓度变化很大，这对未来的监测策略有影响。根据观测和模拟分布，我们建议改进箱模型结构，以更好地捕捉表面浓度模式。
