Willis Henry H, DeKay Michael L, Morgan M Granger, Florig H Keith, Fischbeck Paul S
RAND, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
Risk Anal. 2004 Apr;24(2):363-78. doi: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00438.x.
This article reports an extension of the Carnegie Mellon risk-ranking method to incorporate ecological risks and their attributes. On the basis of earlier risk-perception studies, we identified a set of 20 relevant attributes for describing health, safety, and environmental hazards in standardized risk summary sheets. In a series of three ranking sessions, 23 laypeople ranked 10 such hazards in a fictional Midwestern U.S. county using both holistic and multiattribute ranking procedures. Results were consistent with those from previous studies involving only health and safety hazards, providing additional evidence for the validity of the method and the replicability of the resulting rankings. Holistic and multiattribute risk rankings were reasonably consistent both for individuals and for groups. Participants reported that they were satisfied with the procedures and results, and indicated their support for using the method to advise real-world risk-management decisions. Agreement among participants increased over the course of the exercise, perhaps because the materials and deliberations helped participants to correct their misconceptions and clarify their values. Overall, health and safety attributes were judged more important than environmental attributes. However, the overlap between the importance rankings of these two sets of attributes suggests that some information about environmental impacts is important to participants' judgments in comparative risk-assessment tasks.
本文报告了卡内基梅隆大学风险排名方法的扩展，以纳入生态风险及其属性。基于早期的风险认知研究，我们在标准化风险汇总表中确定了一组20个相关属性，用于描述健康、安全和环境危害。在一系列三场排名会议中，23名外行人使用整体和多属性排名程序，对美国中西部一个虚构县的10种此类危害进行了排名。结果与之前仅涉及健康和安全危害的研究结果一致，为该方法的有效性和所得排名的可重复性提供了额外证据。个人和群体的整体和多属性风险排名都相当一致。参与者报告说，他们对程序和结果感到满意，并表示支持使用该方法为实际风险管理决策提供建议。在练习过程中，参与者之间的一致性有所提高，这可能是因为材料和讨论帮助参与者纠正了误解并明确了他们的价值观。总体而言，健康和安全属性被认为比环境属性更重要。然而，这两组属性重要性排名之间的重叠表明，在比较风险评估任务中，一些有关环境影响的信息对参与者的判断很重要。
