Bay Ryan C, Bramall Nathan, Price P Buford
Physics Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Apr 27;101(17):6341-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0400323101. Epub 2004 Apr 19.
Analyzing data from our optical dust logger, we find that volcanic ash layers from the Siple Dome (Antarctica) borehole are simultaneous (with >99% rejection of the null hypothesis) with the onset of millennium-timescale cooling recorded at Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2; Greenland). These data are the best evidence yet for a causal connection between volcanism and millennial climate change and lead to possibilities of a direct causal relationship. Evidence has been accumulating for decades that volcanic eruptions can perturb climate and possibly affect it on long timescales and that volcanism may respond to climate change. If rapid climate change can induce volcanism, this result could be further evidence of a southern-lead North-South climate asynchrony. Alternatively, a volcanic-forcing viewpoint is of particular interest because of the high correlation and relative timing of the events, and it may involve a scenario in which volcanic ash and sulfate abruptly increase the soluble iron in large surface areas of the nutrient-limited Southern Ocean, stimulate growth of phytoplankton, which enhance volcanic effects on planetary albedo and the global carbon cycle, and trigger northern millennial cooling. Large global temperature swings could be limited by feedback within the volcano-climate system.
通过分析我们光学尘埃记录仪的数据,我们发现来自南极锡普尔圆顶钻孔的火山灰层与格陵兰冰原计划2(GISP2;格陵兰)记录的千年尺度降温的开始是同步的(零假设的拒绝率>99%)。这些数据是火山活动与千年气候变化之间存在因果联系的最佳证据,并且引出了直接因果关系的可能性。几十年来,越来越多的证据表明火山爆发会扰乱气候,并可能在长时间尺度上影响气候,而且火山活动可能会对气候变化做出反应。如果快速的气候变化能够引发火山活动,那么这一结果可能是南北气候异步且南方先行的进一步证据。另外,由于事件的高度相关性和相对时间关系,火山强迫观点特别引人关注,它可能涉及这样一种情景:火山灰和硫酸盐使营养物质有限的南大洋大片区域的可溶性铁突然增加,刺激浮游植物生长,进而增强火山对行星反照率和全球碳循环的影响,并引发北方的千年降温。全球温度的大幅波动可能会受到火山 - 气候系统内部反馈的限制。