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[空气传播细颗粒物污染与健康风险评估]

[Airborne fine particles pollution and health risks estimates].

作者信息

Zapponi Giovanni A, Marconi Achille

机构信息

Laboratorio di Igiene Ambientale, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Roma.

出版信息

Ann Ist Super Sanita. 2003;39(3):387-94.

PMID:15098560
Abstract

In this paper the results of the analyses of health risks associated with PM10 and PM2.5 are discussed, which have been made by the WHO and by a recent Italian multicentric epidemiological study in 8 cities. The distribution of PM10 and PM2.5 levels in the various cities are also considered. WHO estimates of short-term relative risk of daily mortality were 1.0074 and 1.015, by 10 microg/m3 increase respectively of PM10 and of PM2.5. Long-term risk estimates of mortality for the same increase of PM10 and PM2.5 were respectively 1.10 and 1.14, whereas more recent evaluations have indicated a value of 1.07 for PM2.5. The Italian meta-analysis study was concentrated on short-term effects associated to PM10. The effect estimate on mortality was an increase of 1.17%. The short-term effects indicated by the Italian study appeared greater than those estimated by WHO, but the confidence intervals (0.44%-2.06%) included the value of 0.74%. The hypothesis of a greater risk in Italy for the same increase of PM10 deserves further examination. The available mean concentration levels of PM10 in Italy showed an acceptable agreement, even if they were produced by different bodies. Mean yearly concentration of PM10 in the major Italian cities resulted about 50 microg/m3, range 30 microg/m3 to less than 70 microg/m3 since the first '90 up to 2001. Very few data are available on PM2.5, with the exception of Rome where mean annual levels resulted near 28 microg/m3, with 24 h averages ranging from 5 to 101 microg/m3.

摘要

本文讨论了世界卫生组织(WHO)以及意大利近期在8个城市开展的多中心流行病学研究对与PM10和PM2.5相关的健康风险的分析结果。同时也考虑了各城市PM10和PM2.5水平的分布情况。WHO估计,PM10和PM2.5每增加10微克/立方米,每日死亡率的短期相对风险分别为1.0074和1.015。对于PM10和PM2.5同样的增加量,长期死亡风险估计分别为1.10和1.14,而最近的评估表明PM2.5的值为1.07。意大利的荟萃分析研究集中于与PM10相关的短期影响。对死亡率的影响估计为增加1.17%。意大利研究表明的短期影响似乎大于WHO估计的影响,但置信区间(0.44%-2.06%)包含了0.74%的值。在意大利,对于PM10同样的增加量存在更大风险这一假设值得进一步研究。意大利现有的PM10平均浓度水平显示出可接受的一致性,即使它们是由不同机构得出的。自20世纪90年代初至2001年,意大利主要城市的PM10年均浓度约为50微克/立方米,范围在30微克/立方米至不到70微克/立方米之间。关于PM2.5的数据非常少,罗马除外,其年均水平约为28微克/立方米,24小时平均值范围为5至101微克/立方米。

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