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A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission.

作者信息

Pouillot Régis, Dufour Barbara, Durand Benoît

机构信息

Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Aliments, DERNS, Maisons-Alfort Cedex, France.

出版信息

Vet Res. 2004 Jan-Feb;35(1):53-68. doi: 10.1051/vetres:2003046.

DOI:10.1051/vetres:2003046
PMID:15099503
Abstract

In France, the considerable economic losses due to paratuberculosis introduction in cattle herds may justify the development of a herd-level certification procedure. For a cost/benefit analysis purpose, a simple deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission has been developed to evaluate the economic consequences of the purchase of a single infected heifer in a French average herd. The values of the epidemiological parameters were provided by a panel of French paratuberculosis experts. The results were in adequacy with field observations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model was however difficult to validate rigorously, since few data on the intra-herd paratuberculosis true prevalence level are currently available.

摘要

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