Li Nan
Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies, Stanford University, CA 94305-5020, USA.
Theor Popul Biol. 2004 Jun;65(4):389-400. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2003.03.001.
In this article, I provide a method to rebuild the active and disabled life expectancy (ALE and DLE) on the basis of 'current' death and disability risks, and to measure disability risk. This method uses national-level data, and is based on two main assumptions. The first is the Gompertz assumption that death rate rises with age exponentially, and the second is the Cox assumption that death rates of active status are proportional to those of disabled status across age. Applying this method to the US data, I find that the disability risk has increased between 1970 and 1990 for both men and women aged 40 and older. Situations in which above assumptions could be removed are also discussed.
在本文中，我提供了一种基于“当前”死亡和残疾风险来重建活动预期寿命和非活动预期寿命（ALE和DLE）并衡量残疾风险的方法。该方法使用国家级数据，并基于两个主要假设。第一个是冈珀茨假设，即死亡率随年龄呈指数增长；第二个是考克斯假设，即活动状态的死亡率在各年龄段与残疾状态的死亡率成比例。将此方法应用于美国数据时，我发现1970年至1990年期间，40岁及以上男性和女性的残疾风险均有所增加。本文还讨论了可以去除上述假设的情况。
