既往骨折与后续骨折风险的荟萃分析。
A meta-analysis of previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk.
作者信息
Kanis J A, Johnell O, De Laet C, Johansson H, Oden A, Delmas P, Eisman J, Fujiwara S, Garnero P, Kroger H, McCloskey E V, Mellstrom D, Melton L J, Pols H, Reeve J, Silman A, Tenenhouse A
机构信息
WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK.
出版信息
Bone. 2004 Aug;35(2):375-82. doi: 10.1016/j.bone.2004.03.024.
Previous fracture is a well-documented risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, and bone mineral density (BMD). We studied 15259 men and 44902 women from 11 cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, OFELY, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, DOES, Hiroshima, and two cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for a total of 250000 person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted beta-coefficients. A previous fracture history was associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture compared with individuals without a prior fracture (RR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.75-1.98). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture or for hip fracture. There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Risk ratio (RR) was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any fracture (8%) and for hip fracture (22%). The risk ratio was stable with age except in the case of hip fracture outcome where the risk ratio decreased significantly with age. We conclude that previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by measurement of BMD. Its validation on an international basis permits the use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.
既往骨折是未来骨折的一个有充分文献记载的危险因素。本研究的目的是在国际范围内量化这一风险,并探讨该风险与年龄、性别和骨密度(BMD)之间的关系。我们研究了来自11个队列(包括EVOS/EPOS、OFELY、CaMos、罗切斯特、谢菲尔德、鹿特丹、库奥皮奥、DOES、广岛以及哥德堡的两个队列)的15259名男性和44902名女性。对这些队列的随访总计达250000人年。使用泊松模型对每个队列中每种性别的既往骨折史对任何骨折、任何骨质疏松性骨折以及仅髋部骨折风险的影响进行了检验。所检验的协变量包括年龄、性别和骨密度。通过使用加权β系数合并了不同研究的结果。与无既往骨折的个体相比,既往骨折史与任何骨折风险的显著增加相关(风险比=1.86;95%置信区间=1.75 - 1.98)。骨质疏松性骨折或髋部骨折结局的风险比相似。男性和女性之间的风险比无显著差异。考虑骨密度时,风险比(RR)略有下调。低骨密度解释了任何骨折风险的一小部分(8%)和髋部骨折风险的22%。除髋部骨折结局外,风险比随年龄稳定,在髋部骨折结局中,风险比随年龄显著降低。我们得出结论,既往骨折史赋予骨折风险增加,其重要性远超骨密度测量所能解释的范围。在国际范围内对其验证后,可将这一危险因素用于病例发现策略。