[Assessment on the impact of warming climate in winter on schistosomiasis epidemics].

OBJECTIVE

To assess the potential impact of warming climate in winter to the scale and severity of schistosomiasis epidemics in China.

METHODS

Based on the data of mean temperature and monthly minimum temperature in January from 126 (out of 733) weather observation stations in China, the trend and oscillation amplitude was analyzed. The impact of warming climate in winter to the scale of schistosomiasis spreading was assessed, using the indices of 0 degrees C mean temperature and -4 degrees C mean monthly minimum temperature in January. Correlation between these two indices was analyzed.

RESULTS

Evidences showed the warming climate in winter was seen all over China with the mean monthly minimum temperature and the mean temperature in January had increased 1.3 degrees C and 0.9 degrees C since 1986. The contours of mean monthly minimum temperature -4 degrees C and mean temperature 0 degrees C in January moved 1 - 2 latitudes northward.

CONCLUSION

The warming climate phenomenon seen in winter was considered favorable to the living of snails in winter, resulting in the possible increase of northward spreading of snails.Thus, monitoring of snails should be paid special attention.