Zhou Xiao-nong, Yang Kun, Hong Qing-biao, Sun Le-ping, Yang Guo-jing, Liang You-sheng, Huang Yi-Xin
Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200025, China.
Zhongguo Ji Sheng Chong Xue Yu Ji Sheng Chong Bing Za Zhi. 2004 Oct;22(5):262-5.
To predict the intensity and scale of impact on transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in China caused by the climate warming.
By using climate data from 193 weather stations in China from 1951 to 2000, the GIS database was created to analyze the tendency of average daily temperature. By using the results from the effective accumulated temperature models on Oncomelania snails and Schistosoma japonicum, the climate-transmission model for schistosomiasis was established at country level, by which the spatio-temporal analysis was performed to create the distribution maps of Oncomelania snails and Schistosoma japonicum, respectively, by means of GIS approaches based on the ratio of effective accumulated temperature to the snail or the parasite development temperature (ET/SDT) in all 193 stations. The potential distribution maps with the dispersal risk areas of schistosomiasis japonica in 2030 and 2050 were created based on forecast data that the average temperature of the country will increase by 1.7 degrees C in 2030 and by 2.2 degrees C in 2050.
The GIS database of climate-schistosomiasis of the country was established. It was found that the average temperature in the last 5 decades inclined, especially after 1990 it increased significantly with its increasing regression formula T = 0.0198X - 28.476. The climate-transmission model for schistosomiasis was established, and it was found that the geographical distribution of Schistosoma japonicum was much larger than that of Oncomelania snails based on the ratio of ET/SDT. The prediction maps for distribution of schistosomiasis in 2030 and 2050 were created, respectively, which showed that the sensitive areas were extended with the time, the risk of expansion northward for schistosomiasis will be increasing due to directly the climate warming.
It is predicted that a northward expansion of transmission area of schistosomiasis may occur due to the climate warming, the expanded potential area for schistosomiasis transmission will be important for future surveillance.
预测气候变暖对中国日本血吸虫病传播造成影响的强度和规模。
利用1951年至2000年中国193个气象站的气候数据，创建地理信息系统（GIS）数据库以分析日平均气温趋势。利用钉螺和日本血吸虫有效积温模型的结果，在国家层面建立血吸虫病气候传播模型，通过GIS方法，基于193个站点有效积温与钉螺或寄生虫发育温度的比值（ET/SDT），分别进行时空分析以创建钉螺和日本血吸虫的分布图。根据预测数据，即到2030年全国平均气温将升高1.7摄氏度，到2050年升高2.2摄氏度，绘制了2030年和2050年日本血吸虫病传播风险区域的潜在分布图。
建立了全国气候-血吸虫病的GIS数据库。发现过去50年平均气温呈上升趋势，特别是1990年后显著上升，其回归方程为T = 0.0198X - 28.476。建立了血吸虫病气候传播模型，基于ET/SDT比值发现日本血吸虫的地理分布范围比钉螺大得多。分别绘制了2030年和2050年血吸虫病分布预测图，结果显示敏感区域随时间扩展，由于气候变暖，血吸虫病向北扩展的风险将增加。
预测气候变暖可能导致血吸虫病传播区域向北扩展，扩大的血吸虫病传播潜在区域对未来监测具有重要意义。
