Sugiura Katsuaki
Food Safety Commission, Cabinet Office, 2-13-10 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8989, Japan.
Prev Vet Med. 2004 Jul 16;64(2-4):191-200. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2004.05.001.
All cattle of UK and German origin imported to Japan since 1980 and slaughtered before 2002 were traced (n = 33 and 15 respectively) and the probability that none, one, two or three of these imported cattle had developed BSE (reached the end or last stage of incubation period) at the year of slaughter/death was calculated. The predicted risk that BSE was introduced into Japan by imported cattle was 0.18. Among cattle imported from these countries in various years, cattle imported from the UK in 1987 and 1988 presented the highest risk, while the risk that BSE entered Japan by live cattle imported from the UK in 1982 and from Germany in 1993 was negligible. Because there was no effective system to avoid the recycling of the BSE agent, those infected cattle imported from the UK in 1987 and 1988 most probably entered the feed chain in Japan in 1992 and 1993.
对1980年以来进口到日本且在2002年之前被屠宰的所有英国和德国原产牛进行了追踪（分别为33头和15头），并计算了这些进口牛在屠宰/死亡年份没有、有一头、有两头或有三头感染牛海绵状脑病（进入潜伏期末期或最后阶段）的概率。通过进口牛将牛海绵状脑病引入日本的预测风险为0.18。在这些国家不同年份进口的牛中，1987年和1988年从英国进口的牛风险最高，而1982年从英国和1993年从德国进口的活牛将牛海绵状脑病传入日本的风险可忽略不计。由于没有有效的系统来避免牛海绵状脑病病原体的循环利用，1987年和1988年从英国进口的那些感染牛很可能在1992年和1993年进入了日本的饲料链。
