Wang J, Sii H S, Yang J B, Pillay A, Yu D, Liu J, Maistralis E
School of Engineering, Liverpool John Moores University, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK.
Risk Anal. 2004 Aug;24(4):1041-63. doi: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00506.x.
The maritime industry is moving toward a "goal-setting" risk-based regime. This opens the way to safety engineers to explore and exploit flexible and advanced risk modeling and decision-making approaches in the design and operation processes. In this article, following a brief review of the current status of maritime risk assessment, a design/operation selection framework and a design/operation optimization framework are outlined. A general discussion of control engineering techniques and their application to risk modeling and decision making is given. Four novel risk modeling and decision-making approaches are then outlined with illustrative examples to demonstrate their use. Such approaches may be used as alternatives to facilitate risk modeling and decision making in situations where conventional techniques cannot be appropriately applied. Finally, recommendations on further exploitation of advances in general engineering and technology are suggested with respect to risk modeling and decision making.
航运业正在朝着基于风险“目标设定”的制度发展。这为安全工程师在设计和运营过程中探索和运用灵活且先进的风险建模及决策方法开辟了道路。本文在简要回顾海上风险评估现状之后,概述了一个设计/运营选择框架和一个设计/运营优化框架。对控制工程技术及其在风险建模与决策中的应用进行了一般性讨论。接着通过示例概述了四种新颖的风险建模与决策方法,以展示其用途。在传统技术无法恰当应用的情况下,此类方法可用作促进风险建模与决策的替代方法。最后,针对风险建模与决策,就进一步利用一般工程和技术进展提出了建议。