Linkov Igor, Satterstrom F Kyle, Kiker Gregory A, Bridges Todd S, Benjamin Sally L, Belluck David A
Cambridge Environmental, 58 Charles Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02141, USA.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2006 Jan;2(1):92-8.
Current uncertainties in our understanding of ecosystems require shifting from optimization-based management to an adaptive management paradigm. Risk managers routinely make suboptimal decisions because they are forced to predict environmental response to different management policies in the face of complex environmental challenges, changing environmental conditions, and even changing social priorities. Rather than force risk managers to make single suboptimal management choices, adaptive management explicitly acknowledges the uncertainties at the time of the decision, providing mechanisms to design and institute a set of more flexible alternatives that can be monitored to gain information and reduce the uncertainties associated with future management decisions. Although adaptive management concepts were introduced more than 20 y ago, their implementation has often been limited or piecemeal, especially in remedial decision making. We believe that viable tools exist for using adaptive management more fully. In this commentary, we propose that an adaptive management approach combined with multicriteria decision analysis techniques would result in a more efficient management decision-making process as well as more effective environmental management strategies. A preliminary framework combining the 2 concepts is proposed for future testing and discussion.
目前我们对生态系统的理解存在不确定性，这就要求从基于优化的管理转向适应性管理范式。风险管理者经常做出次优决策，因为面对复杂的环境挑战、不断变化的环境条件甚至不断变化的社会优先事项，他们被迫预测环境对不同管理政策的反应。适应性管理并非迫使风险管理者做出单一的次优管理选择，而是明确承认决策时存在的不确定性，提供设计和制定一套更灵活替代方案的机制，这些方案可以进行监测以获取信息，并减少与未来管理决策相关的不确定性。尽管适应性管理概念在20多年前就已提出，但其实施往往受到限制或零零散散，尤其是在补救决策方面。我们认为存在更充分利用适应性管理的可行工具。在本评论中，我们建议将适应性管理方法与多标准决策分析技术相结合，将产生更高效的管理决策过程以及更有效的环境管理策略。我们提出了一个将这两个概念结合起来的初步框架，以供未来测试和讨论。
