Jackson Christine, Dickinson Denise
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Chapel Hill Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2004 Nov;158(11):1050-6. doi: 10.1001/archpedi.158.11.1050.
The childhood cause of adolescent smoking requires prospective study.
To compare prospective with retrospective estimates of childhood smoking and to test cigarette consumption and susceptibility to smoking during childhood as predictors of smoking behavior at late adolescence.
Eight-year prospective study.
From February through April of 1994, 1995, and 1996, surveys were completed in elementary schools in central North Carolina; from February through May 2002, telephone interviews were completed wherever participants resided.
Of 868 age-eligible children, 737 (84.9%) provided survey data between the ages of 8 and 10 years; of these subjects, 594 (80.6%) were interviewed at the age of 17 years.
Current, established, and daily smoking.
Current smoking was reported by 23.0% of those having never puffed on a cigarette (abstinent) in childhood vs 42.7% (odds ratio [OR], 2.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.58-3.82), 50.0% (OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.41-8.01), 58.3% (OR, 4.41; 95% CI, 1.46-14.18), and 56.5% (OR, 4.37; 95% CI, 1.86-10.29) of those who smoked 1 or fewer, 2 to 4, 5 to 20, and more than 20 cigarettes, respectively, during childhood. Established smoking was reported by 15.0% of those abstinent in childhood vs 21.3% (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.89-2.58), 40.6% (OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 1.61-9.59), 50.0% (OR, 4.96; 95% CI, 1.77-16.18), and 47.8% (OR, 5.21; 95% CI, 2.20-12.32) of those who smoked 1 or fewer, 2 to 4, 5 to 20, and more than 20 cigarettes, respectively, during childhood. Daily smoking was reported by 10.1% of those abstinent in childhood vs 11.2% (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.56-2.18), 28.1% (OR, 3.45; 95% CI, 1.24-9.03), 33.3% (OR, 4.47; 95% CI, 1.29-15.84), and 39.1% (OR, 5.75; 95% CI, 2.35-14.08) of those who smoked 1 or fewer, 2 to 4, 5 to 20, and more than 20 cigarettes, respectively, during childhood. Among abstinent children, high vs low susceptibility to smoking predicted greater likelihood of current (37.5% vs 16.7%; OR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.55-5.74), established (32.1% vs 9.3%; OR, 4.81; 95% CI, 2.29-10.07), and daily (21.4% vs 7.0%; OR, 4.02; 95% CI, 1.71-9.44) smoking at follow-up.
Relatively small increases in the number of cigarettes consumed during childhood are associated with significantly higher odds of current, established, and daily smoking in adolescence.
青少年吸烟的童年成因需要前瞻性研究。
比较童年吸烟的前瞻性估计与回顾性估计，并测试童年时期的香烟消费量和吸烟易感性，以此作为青春期后期吸烟行为的预测指标。
八年前瞻性研究。
1994年、1995年和1996年2月至4月期间，在北卡罗来纳州中部的小学完成调查；2002年2月至5月期间，在参与者居住的任何地方完成电话访谈。
在868名符合年龄条件的儿童中，737名（84.9%）在8至10岁之间提供了调查数据；在这些受试者中，594名（80.6%）在17岁时接受了访谈。
当前吸烟、确定吸烟和每日吸烟情况。
童年时从未吸过烟（戒烟者）的人中，23.0%报告当前吸烟，而童年时分别吸过1支及以下、2至4支、5至20支和超过20支香烟的人中，这一比例分别为42.7%（比值比[OR]，2.45；95%置信区间[CI]，1.58 - 3.82）、50.0%（OR，3.36；95% CI，1.41 - 8.01）、58.3%（OR，4.41；95% CI，1.46 - 14.18）和56.5%（OR，4.37；95% CI，1.86 - 10.29）。童年时戒烟者中，15.0%报告确定吸烟，而童年时分别吸过1支及以下、2至4支、5至20支和超过20支香烟的人中，这一比例分别为21.3%（OR，1.52；95% CI，0.89 - 2.58）、40.6%（OR，3.93；95% CI，1.61 - 9.59）、50.0%（OR，4.96；95% CI，1.77 - 16.18）和47.8%（OR，5.21；95% CI，2.20 - 12.32）。童年时戒烟者中，10.1%报告每日吸烟，而童年时分别吸过1支及以下、2至4支、5至20支和超过20支香烟的人中，这一比例分别为11.2%（OR，1.10；95% CI，0.56 - 2.18）、28.1%（OR，3.45；95% CI，1.24 - 9.03）、33.3%（OR，4.47；95% CI，1.29 - 15.84）和39.1%（OR，5.75；95% CI，2.35 - 14.08）。在戒烟儿童中，吸烟易感性高与低相比，预测随访时当前吸烟（37.5%对16.7%；OR，2.98；95% CI，1.55 - 5.74）、确定吸烟（32.1%对9.3%；OR，4.81；95% CI，2.29 - 10.07）和每日吸烟（21.4%对7.0%；OR，4.02；95% CI，1.71 - 9.44）的可能性更大。
童年时期香烟消费量相对较小的增加与青春期当前吸烟、确定吸烟和每日吸烟的显著更高几率相关。
