Bishai David M, Mercer Dan, Tapales Athena
Department of Population and Family Health Sciences, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Prev Med. 2005 Feb;40(2):197-202. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2004.05.021.
This study examines the extent to which policies influence participation of adolescents in alcohol and tobacco consumption and in unsafe sex.
Data were obtained from the 1995 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) conducted by 20 different states and cities in the U.S. These data were combined with state data on cigarette taxes, vending machine laws, beer taxes, and family planning clinic availability. A model of teenage risk taking suggested that the three risk behaviors were codetermined by a common latent risk-taking propensity. We used a structural equation model (SEM) accounting for this shared latent propensity to estimate the extent of participation in terms of frequency of smoking, drinking, and the number of sex partners.
Estimating simultaneous equations for all three risk behaviors was statistically more efficient than equation-by-equation estimates of each behavior. Estimates indicated significant deterrent effects of beer taxes, vending machine restrictions, and increased density of family planning clinics on teenage risk behavior.
State policies, such as taxes on beer, and restrictions on location of cigarette vending machines, and placement of family planning clinics influence adolescents' behavior. Because there is interrelationship between these behaviors, systems estimators, can offer improved estimates of these effects.
本研究探讨政策在多大程度上影响青少年饮酒、吸烟及不安全性行为的参与情况。
数据来自美国20个不同州和城市开展的1995年青少年危险行为调查(YRBS)。这些数据与各州关于香烟税、自动售货机法规、啤酒税以及计划生育诊所可及性的数据相结合。一个青少年冒险行为模型表明,这三种危险行为由一个共同的潜在冒险倾向共同决定。我们使用一个结构方程模型(SEM)来考虑这种共同的潜在倾向,以根据吸烟频率、饮酒频率和性伴侣数量来估计参与程度。
对所有三种危险行为同时估计方程在统计上比逐个估计每种行为的方程更有效。估计结果表明,啤酒税、自动售货机限制以及计划生育诊所密度增加对青少年危险行为有显著的抑制作用。
州政策,如啤酒税、香烟自动售货机位置限制以及计划生育诊所的设置,会影响青少年的行为。由于这些行为之间存在相互关系,系统估计方法能够更好地估计这些影响。