McKone T E, Bogen K T
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, University of California, Livermore 94550.
Regul Toxicol Pharmacol. 1992 Feb;15(1):86-103. doi: 10.1016/0273-2300(92)90087-p.
Population risk to an environmental contaminant is represented as the product of a source term; the exposure function, which converts the source into a lifetime-equivalent contact rate in the population; the fraction metabolized; the toxic potency associated with the delivered dose; and the size of the exposed population. Using case studies for contamination of groundwater in California with tetrachloroethylene (PCE), the combined uncertainty in exposure and dose-response models is characterized. Three key issues are addressed: (a) uncertainty in quantifying pathway exposure factors that relate measured environmental concentrations to levels of contact in the exposed population; (b) the uncertainty in the human dose-response models derived from animal data; and (c) an overview of important contributors to the overall uncertainty in population risk estimates.
源项；暴露函数，它将源转化为人群中的终身等效接触率；代谢分数；与所输送剂量相关的毒效；以及暴露人群的规模。利用加利福尼亚州四氯乙烯（PCE）污染地下水的案例研究，对暴露和剂量反应模型中的综合不确定性进行了表征。讨论了三个关键问题：（a）在量化将测量的环境浓度与暴露人群的接触水平相关联的途径暴露因素时的不确定性；（b）从动物数据得出的人体剂量反应模型中的不确定性；以及（c）对人群风险估计总体不确定性的重要贡献因素概述。
