Young Deidra J, Stockwell Tim, Cherpitel Cheryl J, Ye Yu, Macdonald Scott, Borges Guilherme, Giesbrecht Norman
National Drug Research Institute, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Western Australia.
J Stud Alcohol. 2004 Sep;65(5):605-12. doi: 10.15288/jsa.2004.65.605.
This study describes and examines the development of surrogate measures of acute alcohol-related injury for use in the evaluation of community-based prevention initiatives.
An international collaborative study of alcohol and injury, the Emergency Room Collaborative Alcohol Analysis Project (ERCAAP), provided a subset of data on 8580 emergency room (ER) presentations from five countries and 28 ER facilities.
Presentations most likely to be alcohol related were those made between 12:00 AM and 4:59 AM (56%), on Fridays, Saturdays or Sundays (26%); and those among injured persons who were male (28%), who were aged between 18 and 45 years (24%) or who were unmarried (24%). Multilevel logistic regression models confirmed the significance of the above variables as predictors of alcohol involvement prior to the injury event. The strongest predictor variable was presentation between 12 midnight and 4:59 AM with an odds ratio of 4.92 (Wald Test chi2 = 397.6, p < .001). Being male had an odds ratio of 3.01 (Wald Test chi2 = 247.25, p < .001), and presenting on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday night had an odds ratio of 1.50 (Wald Test chi2 = 49.6, p < .001), whereas being under 45 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.20, p < .05) and being unmarried (OR = 1.2, p < .01) were less strong predictors. Combining all these values for variables raised the probability of prior alcohol involvement in such injury presentations to 0.65, although only 3.37% of all cases met these criteria, limiting applicability of this combined variable as a surrogate measure for intervention studies. Probabilities of prior alcohol involvement are presented with other combinations of values for the predictor variables.
Frequency of nighttime injury presentations to ER facilities, particularly by men, can be used as a reliable surrogate measure of alcohol-related injuries for various epidemiological and evaluation purposes.
本研究描述并检验用于评估社区预防举措的急性酒精相关损伤替代指标的发展情况。
一项关于酒精与损伤的国际合作研究——急诊室酒精协同分析项目（ERCAAP），提供了来自五个国家和28个急诊室设施的8580例急诊室就诊病例的部分数据。
最有可能与酒精相关的就诊情况为：凌晨12:00至4:59之间（56%）、周五、周六或周日（26%）；以及男性伤者（28%）、年龄在18至45岁之间的伤者（24%）或未婚伤者（24%）。多水平逻辑回归模型证实了上述变量作为损伤事件前酒精参与预测指标的显著性。最强的预测变量是午夜12点至4:59之间就诊，优势比为4.92（Wald检验卡方 = 397.6，p < .001）。男性的优势比为3.01（Wald检验卡方 = 247.25，p < .001），在周五、周六或周日晚上就诊的优势比为1.50（Wald检验卡方 = 49.6，p < .001），而45岁以下（优势比[OR] = 1.20，p < .05）和未婚（OR = 1.2，p < .01）是较弱的预测指标。将所有这些变量值组合起来，使此类损伤就诊病例中先前酒精参与的概率提高到0.65，尽管所有病例中只有3.37%符合这些标准，限制了这个组合变量作为干预研究替代指标的适用性。还给出了预测变量其他值组合下先前酒精参与的概率。
急诊室夜间损伤就诊的频率，尤其是男性的就诊频率，可作为各种流行病学和评估目的下酒精相关损伤的可靠替代指标。
