Minelli L, Stracci F, Prandini S, Falsettini E, Fusco-Moffa I, La Rosa F
Department of Hygiene and Public Health, Perugia University, Via del Giochetto, I-06126 Perugia, Italy.
Eur J Cancer Prev. 2004 Dec;13(6):485-9. doi: 10.1097/00008469-200412000-00004.
Recent incidence, mortality and survival rates of female invasive breast cancer in the Umbria region were compared with data of 20 years ago and with data from other Italian Registries. Incidence data, derived from an ad hoc survey and from cancer registry records, were analysed for the periods 1978-1982 and 1994-1999; mortality trend rates were calculated based on data from official publications and the variation was assessed by joinpoint analysis. Fifteen-year survival rates, observed, relative and age-adjusted, were also calculated. Compared with the years 1978-1982, the age-adjusted incidence rates rose during 1994-1999, while age-adjusted mortality rates decreased in this latter period. Incidence and mortality rates specific for each age group showed a constant increase with age, in both periods of observation, especially among women from 50 to 75 years of age. The 5-year relative survival rates increased 17%, rising from 0.71 in 1978-1982 to 0.86 in 1994-1998; the survival improvement was evident among women aged 45-54, and 65-74. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in Umbria were lower than in other Italian Registries and survival rates showed a better prognosis for breast cancers diagnosed in Umbria in the period 1994-1998. In conclusion, the 1994-1998 decline in breast cancer mortality and the survival improvement may in part reflect the effectiveness of earlier detection by mammography and the progress in treatments. Genetic and lifestyle factors along with the improvement in diagnosis, and in quality of data collection and classification could have determined the recorded increase in breast cancer incidence.
将翁布里亚地区女性浸润性乳腺癌的近期发病率、死亡率和生存率与20年前的数据以及其他意大利登记处的数据进行了比较。对1978 - 1982年和1994 - 1999年期间的发病率数据进行了分析，这些数据来自一项专项调查和癌症登记记录；根据官方出版物的数据计算死亡率趋势率，并通过连接点分析评估其变化。还计算了观察到的、相对的和年龄调整后的15年生存率。与1978 - 1982年相比，1994 - 1999年期间年龄调整后的发病率上升，而后期年龄调整后的死亡率下降。在两个观察期内，每个年龄组的发病率和死亡率均随年龄持续上升，尤其是在50至75岁的女性中。5年相对生存率提高了17%，从1978 - 1982年的0.71升至1994 - 1998年的0.86；45 - 54岁和65 - 74岁的女性生存率改善明显。翁布里亚地区年龄调整后的发病率和死亡率低于其他意大利登记处，1994 - 1998年期间在翁布里亚诊断出的乳腺癌生存率显示出更好的预后。总之，1994 - 1998年乳腺癌死亡率的下降和生存率的提高可能部分反映了乳房X线摄影早期检测的有效性以及治疗方面的进展。遗传和生活方式因素以及诊断、数据收集和分类质量的提高可能导致了记录的乳腺癌发病率上升。
