Patten S B, Arboleda-Flórez J A
Depts. of Community Health Sciences and Psychiatry, University of Calgary, 3330 Hospital Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2004 Nov;39(11):853-6. doi: 10.1007/s00127-004-0867-9.
Epidemics can be represented mathematically using a variety of models. One of these, the Kermack-McKendrick model, has been used to support health policy decisions concerning vaccination requirements. An unrelated body of literature suggests that some behaviours, including some types of violence, may spread in ways analogous to the contagious spread of infectious diseases, a process that has been characterized as "behavioural contagion".
Various parameter values reflecting the characteristics of crowds were substituted into the Kermack-McKendrick model. Computer simulations were used to evaluate the impact of these parameter values.
The simulations reproduced several features of crowd violence: the tendency for riots to occur in large groups, the importance of rapid removal of violent individuals from crowds, and the roles of alcohol consumption and social identification processes.
Epidemic models may be of relevance to the prevention and control of violent behaviour as they can assist with the identification of high-risk situations and prevention strategies. Theoretical constructs related to epidemic theory may have broad applicability for modelling the unstable course of some mental disorders.
流行病可用多种数学模型来表示。其中之一的Kermack - McKendrick模型已被用于支持有关疫苗接种要求的卫生政策决策。另一类不相关的文献表明，一些行为，包括某些类型的暴力行为，可能以类似于传染病的传染传播方式传播，这一过程被描述为“行为传染”。
将反映人群特征的各种参数值代入Kermack - McKendrick模型。使用计算机模拟来评估这些参数值的影响。
模拟重现了人群暴力的几个特征：暴乱在大群体中发生的倾向、迅速将暴力个体从人群中清除的重要性以及酒精消费和社会认同过程的作用。
流行病模型可能与暴力行为的预防和控制相关，因为它们可以帮助识别高风险情况和预防策略。与流行病理论相关的理论结构可能在模拟某些精神障碍的不稳定病程方面具有广泛的适用性。
