Guha-Sapir Debarati, Panhuis Willem Gijsbert
School of Public Health, Epidemiology Unit, Catholic University of Louvain, 30.94 Clos-Chapelle-aux-Champs, 1200 Brussels, Belgium.
Disasters. 2004 Dec;28(4):418-28. doi: 10.1111/j.0361-3666.2004.00267.x.
Mortality rates are among the main indicators of the human impact of armed conflict and many surveys have assessed this impact both for targeting and evaluating humanitarian aid programmes. Almost no epidemiological analysis such as calculating relative risk was performed nor were reference values clearly described. Here the aim is to review published mortality rates for a better understanding of age-specific mortality in armed conflict. Published mortality rates from conflict situations were collected and pre-conflict reference rates composed. We calculated the relative risk of dying in conflict compared to pre-conflict for children under 5 and people older than five years old. Although limited by reporting inadequacies, the results confirm the high vulnerability of children < 5 but identify a higher relative risk of dying among the > or = 5 year olds. Although not entirely new, this observation is not fully understood. Further systematic epidemiological research is needed to estimate and understand the impact of armed conflict on mortality.
死亡率是武装冲突对人类影响的主要指标之一,许多调查评估了其对人道主义援助计划的目标设定和评估的影响。几乎没有进行诸如计算相对风险之类的流行病学分析,也没有明确描述参考值。本文旨在回顾已发表的死亡率,以便更好地了解武装冲突中特定年龄组的死亡率。收集了冲突局势下已发表的死亡率,并构建了冲突前的参考率。我们计算了5岁以下儿童和5岁及以上人群在冲突中死亡相对于冲突前的相对风险。尽管受到报告不足的限制,但结果证实了5岁以下儿童的高脆弱性,但也发现5岁及以上人群的相对死亡风险更高。尽管这一观察结果并非全新,但尚未得到充分理解。需要进一步进行系统的流行病学研究,以估计和了解武装冲突对死亡率的影响。