Pybus Oliver G, Cochrane Alexandra, Holmes Edward C, Simmonds Peter
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.
Infect Genet Evol. 2005 Mar;5(2):131-9. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2004.08.001.
Given the economic and health costs of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and the ongoing transmission within the injecting drug user (IDU) population, there is a need for improved understanding of HCV epidemiology within this risk group. We employed a recently developed method based on phylogenetic analysis to infer HCV epidemic history and to provide the first estimates of the rate of spread of subtypes 1a and 3a circulating within injecting drug user populations. The data indicates that HCV subtype 1a entered the IDU population on at least three separate occasions. Both subtypes demonstrate exponential population growth during the 20th century, with a doubling time of 7-8 years. The results provide a baseline for prediction of the future course of the HCV epidemic, and its likely response to transmission control policies.
鉴于丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）感染带来的经济和健康成本，以及注射吸毒者群体中病毒的持续传播，有必要更好地了解这一风险群体中的HCV流行病学情况。我们采用了一种基于系统发育分析的最新方法来推断HCV的流行病史，并首次估算了在注射吸毒者群体中传播的1a和3a亚型的传播速率。数据表明，HCV 1a亚型至少三次分别进入注射吸毒者群体。两种亚型在20世纪均呈现指数级的种群增长，倍增时间为7 - 8年。这些结果为预测HCV流行的未来走向及其对传播控制政策可能的反应提供了基线。
