Ihorst G, Forster J, Petersen G, Schumacher M
Institute of Medical Biometry and Medical Informatics, University Hospital of Freiburg, Stefan-Meier-Str. 26, 79104 Freiburg, Germany.
Methods Inf Med. 2004;43(5):479-82.
To obtain a reliable estimate of the population size in an epidemiological study concerned with incidence estimation.
In the present case, the population of interest consists of all children attending a certain pediatric practice for any reason and is estimated making use of the number of regularly attended well baby visits. In some cases, exact figures from the practices are available as a reference. A prospective epidemiological study on the estimation of the incidence of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in the German pediatric population (PRI.DE, Parainfluenza- und Respiratory-Syncytial-Virus-Infektionen in Deutschland) is used to demonstrate the procedure.
In most cases, the fit can be regarded as good with deviations between 11% and 17%, whereas in a few cases it must be considered as poor (deviations of 60%).
The importance of using exact figures whenever obtainable and of appraising the results carefully is emphasized.
在一项涉及发病率估计的流行病学研究中获得可靠的人群规模估计值。
在本案例中，目标人群包括因任何原因前往某儿科诊所就诊的所有儿童，并利用定期进行的健康婴儿检查次数进行估计。在某些情况下，可以获得诊所的准确数字作为参考。一项关于德国儿科人群下呼吸道感染（LRTI）发病率估计的前瞻性流行病学研究（PRI.DE，德国副流感和呼吸道合胞病毒感染）用于说明该程序。
在大多数情况下，拟合度可视为良好，偏差在11%至17%之间，而在少数情况下，拟合度必须视为较差（偏差为60%）。
强调了在可能获得准确数字时使用准确数字并仔细评估结果的重要性。
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