Bell Michelle L, Hobbs Benjamin F, Ellis Hugh
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2005 Jan;55(1):97-106. doi: 10.1080/10473289.2005.10464596.
Comparisons of air quality policies involve numerous considerations such as cost, health, effects on vegetation and materials, and aesthetics. Such assessments require difficult scientific and value judgments. These difficulties can also characterize comparisons that consider only physical and chemical air quality indices. We compare ambient tropospheric ozone concentrations from a baseline scenario and seven emissions scenarios for a case study. The resulting air qualities are evaluated based upon spatial and temporal distribution of impacts, exceedances of regulatory standards, concentrations weighted by population density, and a variety of averaging times. Results reveal that even when only a single pollutant is considered, comparisons of air quality can be ambiguous. Which scenario has better air quality depends on how (e.g., choice of averaging times, absolute vs. relative changes in concentrations), where (e.g., effects in specific areas vs. effects over the entire region), and when (e.g., the percent of time for which one alternative has higher concentrations than another) the comparison is made. This indicates that general descriptors of air quality such as the annual average ozone concentration do not fully describe the complexity of air quality. Use of such averages can result in different policy rankings than consideration of the full distribution of impacts.
空气质量政策的比较涉及诸多因素,如成本、健康、对植被和材料的影响以及美学等。此类评估需要艰难的科学和价值判断。这些困难也体现在仅考虑物理和化学空气质量指标的比较中。我们针对一个案例研究,比较了基准情景和七种排放情景下的对流层臭氧环境浓度。根据影响的时空分布、监管标准的超标情况、按人口密度加权的浓度以及各种平均时间来评估所得的空气质量。结果表明,即使仅考虑单一污染物,空气质量的比较也可能模棱两可。哪种情景的空气质量更好取决于比较的方式(例如平均时间的选择、浓度的绝对变化与相对变化)、地点(例如特定区域的影响与整个区域的影响)以及时间(例如一种方案的浓度高于另一种方案的时间百分比)。这表明诸如年平均臭氧浓度等空气质量的一般描述符并不能完全描述空气质量的复杂性。使用此类平均值可能会导致与考虑影响的完整分布不同的政策排名。