Caulkins Jonathan P, Behrens Doris A, Knoll Claudia, Tragler Gernot, Zuba Doris
Carnegie Mellon University, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy Management, 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
Health Care Manag Sci. 2004 Nov;7(4):319-29. doi: 10.1007/s10729-004-7540-4.
Everingham and Rydell's Markov chain model of cocaine demand is modified and updated in light of recent data. Key insights continue to hold, e.g., that the proportion of cocaine demand stemming from heavy vs. light users changed dramatically over the 1980s. New insights emerge, e.g., pertaining to the average duration of a career of heavy use (about 12 years) and the negative relationship between levels of heavy use and epidemic "infectivity" or the number of new initiates per current user per year. This illustrates how simple modeling can yield insights directly relevant to managing complex drug control policy questions.
埃弗ingham和里德尔的可卡因需求马尔可夫链模型根据最新数据进行了修改和更新。关键见解仍然成立，例如，在20世纪80年代，重度使用者与轻度使用者对可卡因需求的比例发生了巨大变化。新的见解也出现了，例如，关于重度使用生涯的平均持续时间（约12年）以及重度使用水平与流行“传染性”或每年每位现有使用者新增使用者数量之间的负相关关系。这说明了简单的建模如何能够产生与管理复杂的毒品管制政策问题直接相关的见解。
