Becker Niels G, Glass Kathryn, Li Zhengfeng, Aldis Geoffrey K
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
Math Biosci. 2005 Feb;193(2):205-21. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2004.07.006.
To control emerging infectious diseases like SARS, it is necessary to resort to basic control measures that limit exposures to infectious individuals. These measures include isolating cases at diagnosis, quarantining household members and tracing contacts of diagnosed cases, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposures, and closing schools. To justify such intervention it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission. In this paper, we determine the effect of a number of different interventions on the effective reproduction number and estimate requirements to achieve elimination of the infectious disease. We find that the strategy of tracing and quarantining contacts of diagnosed cases can be very successful in reducing transmission.
为了控制像非典这样的新发传染病，有必要采取基本的控制措施，即限制与感染者的接触。这些措施包括在诊断时隔离病例、对家庭成员进行检疫以及追踪确诊病例的接触者，向社区提供如何减少接触的建议，以及关闭学校。为了证明这种干预措施的合理性，了解这些措施中每一项对限制传播的效果很重要。在本文中，我们确定了一些不同干预措施对有效繁殖数的影响，并估计实现传染病消除的要求。我们发现，追踪和检疫确诊病例接触者的策略在减少传播方面可能非常成功。
